A speed figure is a numerical expression of how fast a horse ran in a race, adjusted for the conditions. Raw finishing times are unreliable — they are affected by the going, the pace, the wind, and the peculiarities of the track. A speed figure strips away these variables and produces a number that can be compared across different races, different courses, and different days. It is the closest thing in racing to an objective measure of performance.
Why Times Alone Are Not Enough
A horse that runs six furlongs at Ascot in 1 minute 12 seconds on firm ground has run a faster clock time than one that runs the same distance at Haydock in 1 minute 15 seconds on soft ground. But the Haydock horse may have produced a superior performance. Soft ground slows every horse, and 1:15 on heavy ground may represent more ability than 1:12 on firm ground. Without adjustment, the times tell you nothing meaningful about which horse is better.
Speed figures solve this by establishing a standard time for each course and distance at each going description, then measuring how each horse’s performance compares to that standard. A horse that beats the standard time for 6f on soft ground at Haydock by two seconds has produced a figure equivalent to beating the standard on firm ground at Ascot by the same margin. The figures make performances comparable — and comparability is the foundation of handicapping.
How Speed Figures Are Made
The construction of a speed figure involves three adjustments. Each one removes a variable that would otherwise make the raw time misleading.
Track variant
Every race day at every course, the going plays faster or slower than average. The track variant measures the overall speed of the surface by comparing every race on the card to the standard times. If every race on a card is 3 seconds slow, the surface is riding 3 seconds slow. Each horse’s time is adjusted by the variant to produce a normalised figure.
Distance adjustment
A horse beaten two lengths over 5 furlongs has lost more time than a horse beaten two lengths over 2 miles, because the speed is higher over shorter distances. Speed figures convert margins into time losses at each distance, ensuring that a defeat of two lengths is weighted correctly regardless of trip.
Weight adjustment
Weight slows a horse. The standard adjustment is approximately 1lb = one-fifth of a length per mile. A horse carrying 10lb more than a rival over 1 mile is at a 2-length disadvantage purely from the weight. Some figure-makers adjust for this; others leave it to the user. Know which system you are using.
Using Speed Figures in Practice
Speed figures are most useful for comparing horses that have not raced against each other. Two horses from different yards, racing at different tracks on different days, can be assessed on a common scale. Without figures, you are guessing which set of form is stronger. With figures, you have a number to compare.
Top figure in the field
The horse with the highest speed figure in the race has produced the best adjusted performance. If that figure is 5+ points clear of the next best, it holds a significant ability edge. The market usually reflects this — but not always, particularly when the top figure came on a different surface or at a different distance.
Improving figures
A horse whose last three figures are 72, 78, 84 is on an upward trajectory. The improvement may not yet be reflected in the OR if the handicapper has not caught up. Rising figures from a young or lightly raced horse are the most reliable indicator of future performance.
Figures on today’s going
A horse may produce a figure of 90 on firm ground and 75 on soft. If today’s going is soft, the relevant figure is 75, not 90. Always filter figures by going to get the true picture of what the horse can do in today’s conditions.
Course-specific figures
Some horses produce better figures at specific courses — because the track configuration suits them, the surface plays to their strengths, or the pace bias at that course matches their running style. Course-and-distance figures are the most predictive single data point available.
Speed figures are most reliable on all-weather surfaces and least reliable on heavy ground. All-weather track variants are more consistent because the surface does not change with weather. Heavy ground produces the least reliable figures because the surface varies across the track and the going can change during a single race. On heavy ground, reduce your confidence in the figures and weight other factors — going preference, stamina, jumping ability — more heavily.
Where to Find Speed Figures
Several providers publish speed figures for British racing. Racing Post Ratings (RPR) and Topspeed are the most widely available, published in the Racing Post racecard. Timeform produce their own figures, as do independent analysts. Each provider uses a slightly different methodology, so figures from one source are not directly comparable with figures from another. Pick one system, learn its scale, and use it consistently.
For how these figures interact with pace analysis, see Pace Bias Explained. For the going variable that affects figure reliability, see Going Descriptions Explained.