Some really nice races to sift through today, which looked a far better betting opportunity than the mudling cards of yesterday. As such, powder was kept dry in order to play a flurry of more fancied chances today.
Our first bets since Wednesday, where we played an ultimately disappointing one in Parramount at Chelmsford. Coming off the back of some decent runs over hurdles, I fancied him to make a real go of that off of a lenient mark, but he finished last of seven.
I’d expected them to take the race with a far more positive attitude than how it unfolded, and despite opting to sit behind the leaders, Jack Doughty still didn’t appear intent on asking for an effort when everyone got going off of the turn for home.
It was a strange run all round, which I’m leaning towards just not being on a going day, as the race should’ve been ideal to have taken the lead and dictated terms.
Wade Out 5/1 | 2pt Win
13:20 Windsor
13:20 WindsorT: Olly Murphy
J: Sean Bowen
Result: unplaced – 4/6 -2pt
Raced lazily at times, in touch with leaders, mistake 8th, dropped to last after 9th, not fluent then reminder 10th, headway on outer after 14th, soon prominent, outpaced when jumped right 3 out, weakened after 2 out (SP 4/1)
Miss Cynthia 11/2 | 2pt Win
14:05 Fakenham
14:05 FakenhamT: Dan Skelton
J: Tristan Durrell
Result: WON – 1/7 +13pts
Towards rear, not fluent 4th, headway on turn and went second before last, left in lead after last, jumped jockey run-in, kept on (SP 13/2)
Thats About Right 16/1 | 1pt EW
14:50 Thurles
14:50 ThurlesT: Philip Rothwell
J: Tiernan Power Roche
Result: unplaced – 10/14 -2pt
In rear, weakened before 3 out (SP 20/1)
Wade Out at Windsor…
First bet up is Wade Out at Windsor, who goes in a potentially trappy little race but looks overpriced to me as one only improving over fences and with a pointer in the formline which leads directly to the clear favourite here, Salver.
A winner in his only start in P2P’s, a winner on his only Bumper run, and running to a good level when notching three wins from five runs in Novice Hurdles, he had all the hallmarks of being a top level chaser in the making.
His first start over fences saw Wade Out go to Worcester over 2m4f, where he saw off Wendigo in a cracking duel to the finish, and that came on ground quicker than he’d have liked. Wendigo has since had the better of Salver at Kempton on Boxing Day when upped to 3m.
Wade Out’s only start since was when upped to three miles in a Listed Novice Chase at Cheltenham in November, where he won easily on soft ground against two next time out winners in One Big Bang and Isaac Des Obeaux.
He doesn’t do anything overly fast, but I really like how Wade Out just keeps ploughing on and think he can put a big tilt in here against some who are far more fancied in the market. Taking on a good few on the improve, he may well find one or two better, but I’d have him at half the price at best here.
Fakenham for Cynthia…
Next up is to Fakenham for Miss Cynthia, who looks a really well handicapped mare for Dan Skelton on her second start for the yard.
Having run to a high level on the flat for Sir Mark Prescott, she then went hurdling for Lucy Wadham, with whom she was unfortunate to bump into a well treated Irish raider at Doncaster to prevent her landing a nice Listed Mares’ Hurdle.
She had won on her only start in a handicap over hurdles, winning from a mark of 109 against Ruth Jefferson’s Lavida Avida, whjo has since won two Mares’ Listed events.
Heading into handicaps now from a mark of 113, she looks remarkably well treated for a yard who have every chance of finding heaps of improvement in her.
That’s About Right at Thurles…
Taking a chance the ground isn’t too far off for That’s About Right at Thurles, who slapped up on good ground in this race last year, where he ran a really nice time for the level.
This years renewal doesn’t look the deepest, but it will depend on how deep the ground really is as to the chances of Philip Rothwell’s runner, who goes better and better the better the ground. At 16/1 and paying five places, I’m willing to take a chance we can see him fair well enough.
He won last year off of a mark of 109 with Tiernan Power Roche claiming 7lbs. He goes today off of 111, with Roche claiming 3lbs, so he effectively only 6lbs higher than when sluicing up by 6 lengths.
Despite the ground concerns, he looks vastly overpriced. Should he be seen off by the ground today, he’ll be one well worth keeping on side with over the coming months, as he’ll be heading into the spring looking remarkably well handicapped and he won’t need many chances to make it pay, I’m sure.
Other notes…
I looked more than once at the Tizzard’s Lisbane Park (12:50 Windsor, 10/1), who enters handicaps off of 121 and looks a fair opening mark now stepping up in trip. This Walk In The Park gelding ran 2nd to Arcadian Emperor on his only start in a P2P, where he was some 30 lengths clear of the third that day. He’ll likely want three miles in time, but I’d expect to see him thereabouts in this and expect he’ll run beyond this mark in time.
Another at Windsor I looked twice at is Go To War (14:25 Windsor, 20/1) who looks interest now going back over hurdles. He went chasing for Nicky Henderson at the tail end of last year and showed nothing to like, but that has meant he now comes back over hurdless off of a reduced mark. He ran a 2nd of 6 and a 3rd of 11 from marks of 123 and 124 respectively, and now comes here off of 120. Up in grade and no easy task, but handicapped to go well.
Sticking with the theme of potentially well handicapped horses… Neo King (15:35 Windsor, 16/1) is one who caught the eye last twice and should prove better than his mark in time. Today looks a muddling race and they’ll need everything to go right, but he was given a stinker of a ride last time over four miles at Kelso, when given a mountain to climb by Ellis Collier, who done a similar thing on their previous start which saw him lumped with a 5lb rise by the handicapper for a 2nd place finish.
I always pay attention to rises like those, as it is the handicappers way of saying they should’ve hosed home. I kept going round in circles on this race, so left alone, but he is the one I’ll be watching with interest.
Best of luck with your punting today,
