A no-show from yesterday’s two runners – Grabajabba was particularly disappointing, as I was sweeter than a sweet thing about his chances. Thequietman, I don’t think was on a particularly going day, as they never really looked to put him in the race which made me think they had another day in mind.
Grabajabba travelled far too wide throughout and never looked like really being involved at the business end of it.
We lose the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown, which is a shame but comes as no surprise with some of the images that have been coming from the course over recent days. The rain had only continued, so it looked inevitable.
Onto today…
I couldn’t get into anything at Sandown or Musselburgh, so despite struggling to catch the All Weather racing with any level of consistency at the minute, I’m sticking with it.
I’ve said recently about really struggling to call anything at Newcastle in particular, and I’m opening myself up to a real chance of egg on face by sticking with one we chanced recently, who goes against another who we’ve followed closely. Hopefully I’ve kept faith with the right one.
Kaaress @ 16/1 | 1pt EW
Lingfield 14:15
Lingfield 14:15T: William Carson
J: Michael Attwater
Result: Won – 1/8 +19.20pts
Midfield, dropped to rear over 6f out, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, kept on well (SP 16/1)
Suzuka @ 14/1 | 1pt EW
Lingfield 16:30
Lingfield 16:30T: Archie Watson
J: Harry Vigors
Result: unplaced – 10/12 -2pt
Prominent, led at steady pace after 1f, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong (SP 22/1)
Trais Fluors @ 14/1 | 1pt EW
Newcastle 18:25
Newcastle 18:25T: Linda Perratt
J: Alex Jary
Result: unplaced – 11/12 -2pt
In rear, no impression (SP 12/1)
First up goes one for Michael Attwater and William Carson in a basement Classified Stakes over 1m2f. Historically I’ve dodged these like the plague, but I’ve been finding myself calling these with a bit more conviction, and there are often some decent pointers in these.
Kaaress has historically been the highest rated of these and has largely been running over the mile trip which I think is her absolute minimum. As such, she has tumbled down the weights some and now finds herself bidding for races like this, but she doesn’t look a forlorn hope and I’m surprised there is an EW price about her chance in this, which looks a particularly weak race.
Interestingly, Attwater and Carson when teaming up for AW Classified STakes contests have a significant strike rate, with four wins from fifteen and ten of them in the frame (131322238482116). Back over over a distance she prefers she has been far more at home. With Carson taking over in the saddle and first time visor applied, I think she’ll be given a more prominent ride and should be there in the mix come the end of it.
Then goes Suzuka, a Bated Breath filly who goes under the useful 7lb claim of Harry Vigors on her second start for Archie Watson. She was of minor interest last time, as she showed a decent level of consistency for her old handler Richard Fahey, and Archie Watson is a master of bringing about improvements in profiles like this.
From some 200+ runners who have switched to Archie Watson, he has a strike rate of 20% with them on either their first or second start for him, with near 40% of them hitting the frame.
She did disappoint on her first start for them, but that run looked to bad to be true and Vigors did report she hung right throughout, so I’m happy to put a line through that and chance her at a decent price.
Lastly goes Trais Fluors, who we back last time and got fairly unlucky with running 3¼ 4th of eleven over 7f at Newcastle. Back up to a mile today, I’m sweeter about his chances and hopeful the big field has enough who will want to go forward.
There aren’t many instances where these have taken up the running, which leans towards favourable for Pallas Lord, who we’ve followed closely, but there are a good handful in here who have proven stamina over further than today’s trip, so I think they’ll be wanting to be on the front end and making a test of it.
Not the easiest race to try and figure out how it will unfold, but I was leaning far more towards Trais Fluors.
Other notes…
A realy muddling and competetive race but I liked the chances about Master Of My Fate in the five furlong handicap at Lingfield (15:55, 7/1). The race looks plenty warm enough but he gets a lovely swing at the weights with Star Corus, who beat him a head at Southwell last time out (LTO).
Star Corus much prefers Southwell, whilst Master Of My Fate has been far more effective at Lingfield, so I’d really fancy that form to be reversed. However, there were too many others lurking and just not enough juice in the price to tempt me in. If there were a drift in the betting to anything over 9/1, I’ll be having a stab.
Best of luck with your punting today,
