Plenty of racing about today, but one very obvious bet which really leapt out and jabbed me on the nose. With odds about this one, I’ve taken a bold stance to play him Win Only, as I think there is enormous value in him.
The rest of it looks okay for a watching brief for future purposes, but didn’t really excite me in any way from a betting perspective.
Frustrating to watch Further Measure oblige at Kempton yesterday, who was a selection on DD#27 on 22nd January, where he ran a huge race at 22/1 for us but finished just out of the frame, beaten 2¼ lengths.
He was a far shorter price for yesterday though and went in an Apprentice Handicap, which have given me the burnt fingers one too many time, so I let him run despite being a very obvious well-handicapped horse. He obliged by a neck and that will be him having gotten away from me the now, I imagine.
I try and follow these in where we can catch them right, but you have to draw a line on a price sometimes and this was one of those where I didn’t fancy taking the chance.
The one selection from Monday, in 50/1 shot Mister Knockout, well… Less said the better. He ran no sort of race dropped in trip and justified his price. Not one I’ll be keeping tabs on for any positive.
Mr Baloo @ 12/1
Mr Baloo @ 12/12pt Win | Lingfield 16:15
T: Richard Hannon | J: Joe Leavy
Result: unplaced – 4/10 -2pt | Slowly into stride, towards rear, headway over 1f out, not pace to challenge (SP 11/1)
One I’ve been toying with for a bet every time he ran over Christmas and New Year, but for one reason or another, I kept talking myself out of. Thankfully he didn’t oblige in any of those, and as such has continued to fall in the weights. Now, I’m hoping, is the time to strike.
Joe Leavy, who takes the ride, has built up some relationship with this Mr Baloo, who have finished in the frame on all eight runs they have paired up with on the All Weather, winning four of the eight.
They won off of OR’s ranging from 78 through to 87, and today go off a lenient looking 81. More interestingly though, is this is the lowest grade they have competed in (0-80), despite having ran off of lower marks in the past.
Mr Baloo’s record over the mile on the AW reads 12138, with the 8th placed run being an 8th of 14 in a highly valuable and ultra competitive Class 2 Handicap at Kempton where he ran off of 92 last September. Put that into context of today, where he runs off of 81 in a 0-80 Class 4.
The race isn’t a gimme by any means, but I’m staggered he is a double-figure price. He looks an absolutely outstanding bet, which would be very easy to play Each-Way, but I think there is too much value in him not to try and make the most of, so I’m going hard.
Best of luck with your punting today,
