For the first time in a few weeks, the racecards for the day were enjoyable to study. The cards of late have done little to inspire, but both the Newbury and Market Rasen cards look nicely competitive, and despite being low-grade, Wolverhampton looks decent enough too.
I’ve somewhat boiled over and found myself with four bets across the day, and that’s with knocking out two races from Woverhampton which I really wanted to find a bet in. I couldn’t quite narrow those down to a position I was sweet in, so what we’ve got what we’ve got.
Yesterday’s selection…
Just the one selection yesterday, where we followed Adrian Keatley’s red-hot form with Azahara Palace at Carlisle on her handicap debut. She duly ran a cracker and was unfortunate to bump into one who was evidently supremely well handicapped, as He’s Bresilian romped home.
The winner cemented one into the tracker, as he had been beaten by one last time out who was of interest to me at the end of January, Platin Moon, who was let down by his jumping on that day at Musselburgh, but is worth keeping on side of on that form line alone.
Azahara Palace done little wrong and was unfortunate to bump into one, albeit she shaped like she is ready for further if anything. Clearly a yard going great guns, and it’s worth bearing any of their runners in mind over the coming days and weeks.
Anyhow, onto today… Two I really like at Newbury, so much so I’m going to make the hour journey to the course to get a good look at them.
Lets Love @ 14/1
Lets Love @ 14/11pt Each-Way | Newbury 14:45
T: Venetia Williams | J: Charlie Deutsch
Result: unplaced – 5/11 -2pts | Took keen hold, soon towards rear, headway 3 out, weakened 2 out (SP 7/1)
Rosie Baloo @ 8/1
Rosie Baloo @ 8/12pt Win | Market Rasen 15:02
T: Tim Easterby | J: Jamie Hamilton
Result: unplaced – 5/12 -2pts | In touch with leaders, outpaced 2 out, kept on run-in, never dangerous (SP 8/1)
Tyson @ 11/1
Tyson @ 11/11pt Each-Way | Newbury 16:30
T: Dan Skelton | J: Harry Skelton
Result: unplaced – PU/12 -2pts | Midfield, towards rear when badly hampered after 4th, hit 6th, weakened after 4 out, pulled up after 3 out (SP 12/1)
American State @ 25/1
American State @ 25/1½pt Each-Way | W’hampton 19:30
T: Ivan Furtado | J: Stevie Donohoe
Result: WON – 1/10 +15pts | In touch with leaders, headway to lead inside final furlong, kept on (SP 16/1)
First up of the four goes Lets Love on his first run for Venetia Williams, who looks to finally have her string turning a corner after a truly torrid few months of it. They are usually as certain as death and taxes over the deep winter months, but they were running vastly below in both numbers of runners and winners.
A yard that ordinarily operate between the months of November and January at a strike rate between 20-30%, but saw a return this term of just 122/7, a dismal 5.7% strike rate. The numbers alone were some 30-40 runners shy of the numbers they ordinarily saddle over this period, which suggests in itself all was not well.
Saturday saw them saddle two winners from their four runners, and in the seven runners prior to Saturday, three of them had finished runner-up. Should this be a turning point for the stable, her handicappers who have dropped a few pounds over the winter will be worth keeping on side of as they are likely well treated on true form.
Today she sends one to Newbury who I had flagged from his maiden run in France, where he ran a cracker at 25/1 on heavy ground at Compiegne, finishing 1¾ lengths 3rd of 14 behind a very useful one of David Maxwell’s, Lascar Du Mathan.
He travelled and jumped superbly that day, with his rider having to do very little in the saddle, and when he was eventually asked for an effort he responded nicely. The form of the race has worked out well (Lascar Du Mathan since sluiced up) and has been littered with graded runners.
He is the ideal type for Venetia and I think it talks some that she has held him back for his first run for her. I think anyone who had watched his run in France will be surprised there is anywhere near an each-way price about his chances.
Then goes Rosie Baloo, who won well for us in January. I think she could be a similar type to Holloway Queen, in that she could suddenly show vast waves of improvement. I think it’s really interesting how much William Easterby has spoken about how much her family improves in training after Christmas, where they show precious little in the weeks and months preceeding.
She has a really nice attitude about her and sticking to Mares’ company, I think she follows her last run up with another big run here and am somehwat surprised there is so much juice in her price. My only negative is I’d have liked to see more rain come at Market Rasen, as she looks like she relishes deep ground.
Then goes Tyson, who we backed over 2 miles last month at huge odds on account of a piece of Irish form he has in the book. That piece of form came over 2m4f, the trip he is stepped up to today, and he also gets heavy ground underfoot here, which according to the record of his sires progeny, he should absolutely love.
Lord Of England progeny have recorded a striking record of ten winners from some thirty runners on heavy ground, which is a remarkable early pointer to a serious group of mudlarks. Tyson is also out of a Montjeu mare, who produced countless mud-lovers.
With the step up in trip to what looks an optimal distance, and conditions underfoot almost certain to bring about improvement, he looks a serious proposition for an each-way bet, where a good bunch are paying four places too.
Last to go is a minimum bet at Wolverhampton, which is angled around both the grade of the race and how I think the pace will unfold. American State has just his second start for Ivan Furtado, and his only career win to date came when making every yard of the running at Newbury.
The only possible contender for the lead here, I hope, is Eagle Day. He has been a highly inconsistent sort and it doesn’t look like know what to try in order to make him click, so there is a chance American State could be left alone in front to dicate terms, which could give us a massive run for a 25/1 chance.
The race is a bit of an unknown, but he is drawn to get a good position and at the price, I’ll willingly chance a minimum wager.
Other notes…
I wanted to take on Forever Noah (Wolverhampton 18:30, 6/4) at a desperately short price, as I he needs to lead and I think both Colours Of Freedom and Captain Kinsella will force a decent pace up front and set the race up for a closer.
However, it’s a muddling race with little form to pick from, so I’d expect the race to just collapse and it’ll be a case of whoever picks up the pieces. If your into laying on the exchanges, Forver Noah looks a low risk option.
Another short price I wanted to take on was Imola (Wolverhampton 20:00, 2/1), with a record of one win in twenty-five starts speaking volumes.
Naughty Niall, Silkies Sib and Scenario all have decent course and distance form for the grade and I’d expect them to have enough to see this short price beaten. Another viable option for the red button on the machine.
Best of luck with your punting today,
