Throughout years of blogging and being active on social media, recurring themes have haunted the sphere I’m in. From faceless tipsters to abusive punters and everything in between. They vary in severity and intent, but they’ve all played their part in where I want to head with my blogs. More importantly, they’ve made it crystal clear who I don’t want to be.
What I want to do is simple: help readers learn the game, understand racing on their own merit, and ultimately become able to pick their own winners — and losers.
What I’m Trying to Do (And What I’m Not)
Since the day I took over behind the scenes at TwitTopTipsters, a racing blog that fell just short of one million unique visitors, my aim was always to get bettors understanding why they were putting money on any given selection, be it mine or otherwise. That became difficult on that format, as some would regularly share their thoughts behind a bet, whilst others were blanket silence who I never heard from beyond time, venue and the selection.
I found myself trying to find an angle on other tipsters’ selections, and regularly I couldn’t find a sound reason behind them. Nobody asked me to do this — it just felt right, considering how many were following blind given the record we’d built up. We were at the point where prices were hammered within fifteen minutes of selections going online.
As the blog went from just a list of selections to posts containing the thoughts and edges behind them, I was astounded by how it resonated with people. It gave me absolute belief this was the only way I’ll continue.
Messages after a nice winner are good to see. I enjoy the winners, of course, but as I’ve said many times, it’s seeing others do well that makes it rewarding. What beats those moments hands down is hearing from people who don’t talk about the winners, but instead talk about what they’ve learned, what’s clicked, and how they’re using it. I get all sorts of questions: handicapping weights, course differences, what tools I use for form, what stats I rely on.
When I opened my testimonials/reviews page, the vast majority weren’t talking about how many winners we’d had or their prices. They were talking about what they had learned from the posts.
Why Blind Following Tipsters Fails
The racing community can be difficult. Many are shrouded in secrecy, egos swell and shrink with every result, and opinions are slashed apart far too often. Everyone thinks they know best. If we’d all just relax, lay it out there, ask the questions we actually need answered, and share what we can offer, the whole game would benefit. I’ve always prided myself on putting it all out there – the good and the bad – and I’ll continue to do so.
This approach has seen mixed reactions, with some readers not able to accept a bad bet with the benefit of hindsight. For me there is no doubt there is at least as much to learn from losing punts as from winners.
Bad runs happen. Anyone who says otherwise is lying, and it happens to tipsters who advise bets on both short and long odds. Look at any tipster across social media and, on the surface, they hardly lose.
The Deception: How Tipsters Appear to Always Win
Winners happen, but the losses get brushed aside while the winners are screamed from the rooftops. It gives the impression to readers that following them will result in nothing but profit. Then a week or two in, you find yourself down, sometimes considerably. Inevitably, this results in a constant turnover of readers and followers, who come and go as soon as they realise it’s not a cash cow.
Rolling accumulators were a great example. A £10–£20 stake dangled in front of punters for the chance to turn it into four figures. Tipsters make money from affiliate deals without punters realising what’s actually going on. The mechanics vary from bookmaker to bookmaker, but generally the tipster earns around 30% of the overall losses of the customers they refer. Some affiliate programmes carry negative balances over, some wipe them clean.
Either way, it’s a system designed so the house — and the affiliate — rarely lose.
Completing a rolling accumulator is incredibly unlikely. But if one lands, the publicity is huge, and a flood of new customers follow. If it loses, it was “only £20”, so they run it back again — adding another easy notch to the affiliate accounts. High-volume tipsters behave in the same way. They post huge numbers of selections, lots of short prices, always active. Big volume gives them more chances to scream about winners.
If you’re tempted to follow someone like that, track their actual profit and loss for a week. I can almost guarantee they show a heavy loss.
The social media tipsters who win when you lose
A BBC piece recently covered this whole affiliate culture on the above post, and it’s well worth reading. The social media tipsters who win when you lose – BBC The idea that a tipster profits when their followers lose is, to me, a complete conflict of interest — legal robbery, in my opinion. Punters are wising up, but many still see the big accounts, the interaction, the hype, and assume it must be legit. Some accounts have hundreds of thousands of followers. I honestly hope the day will come where bookmaker and tipster links are banned.
Premium Services, “Inside Info”, and Other Nonsense
This ties into premium services too. I’m a believer in free tips and tip my cap to those who can do them over a prolonged period, but there is good to be had with premium tipping services too. The problem is the countless accounts that pop up, have a decent week, then suddenly slap a price tag on their selections. No proofing, no history, no accountability and, more often than not, it’s the same old selection, price, selection, price and selection, price.
Not a single hint as to why the selection has been offered up.
Then there are those with “Inside Info”… Now, if anyone genuinely had that quality of information, they wouldn’t be flogging it for a few quid a month. It’s nonsense, usually stems around advising on horses who have been steamed into in the betting in the past and beaten, thus expecting the same again, or they are red-hot favourites who don’t need anyone with claims of inside info to tell you they are live chances.
If they are an even-money shot, they likely hold a fairly good chance, and are almost certainly well fancied by their connections.
Why I Chose Transparency Instead
Ultimately, it was those charlatans who inspired me to really get going with blogging, and the way that resonated with people and how many stuck by me and my ramblings over the years told me there was something in being open, honest, transparent. Never hiding during the bad spells, never boasting during the good. I enjoyed the winners, learned from the losers, and shared it all.
Most people who followed me closely know what I look like, sound like, bits of family life — some have even met me at the course and a few even posted gifts at Christmas to my home.
Gambling can be a dark place, but it doesn’t have to be. Between us, we’ve got the knowledge and drive to win, and I wanted to continue building that sense of community. Bad selections happen. I’ve held my hands up many times after one has run like its legs were tied together. And it’s always better to admit a bad tip than blame conditions, moan about luck, or cry corruption. Sometimes it is just a rancid bad shout, but accept that, try and learn from it, and make yourself better going forward.
Betting Isn’t Easy, and Anyone Saying Otherwise Is Lying
As for paid services, I still don’t believe many have long-term legs. A lot of customers expect instant profit because they’re paying, but no tipster avoids bad spells and it’s entirely unrealistic to expect anything different, paid service or not. Unfortunately, the reality is most customers jump ship at the first sign of a dip in results or the wallet. I’ve seen it all first-hand: a big-priced winner brings a flood of new faces wanting tomorrow’s bets.
Two days later, most vanish to chase whoever had a winner that day.
Betting should be fun. It’s one of the oldest forms of entertainment, but incredibly difficult to be profitable long-term. It’s easy to manipulate numbers, ignore Rule 4s, or spin stats, but reality wins. You’d do very well to make profit year after year and even the best in the game have a fight on their hands. The key is understanding the game, the betting of it and giving yourself the best chance.
Why Understanding Racing Matters
Racing is epic once you actually understand it and it give it the respect it deserves. Full of genuinely endless variables, it pains me to see so many write it off before they’ve even had a chance to fall for it. Lazily labelling the sport rigged, bent and corrupt – stains on the sport, are spouted widely because of nothing more than ignorance. I also believe there is no betting market available where you can find such good value.
There’s a stigma around racing bets that frustrates me. People happily bin money on football accas twice a week, yet look down on a well-reasoned racing bet. Even my own mum frowned at it for years until someone pointed her to the website. She’s not having a bet anytime soon, but she can now see there’s method to it, yet she never had an issue with betting on 22 men kicking a ball around a field, despite it being infinitely harder to win at financially.
The Point Everyone Is Missing
If people took the time to understand and respect the game, rather than relying completely on strangers’ selections with no understanding of what and why they are betting, they’d both enjoy it far more and give themselves a fair crack at turning a profit.
Jockeys wouldn’t be abused, tipsters wouldn’t be hammered after every loser, and new fans wouldn’t be scared off. Racing needs new blood, and the lack of understanding the game is a massive part of that.
In short: tread carefully and logically. There’s no quick buck. Know who and what you’re dealing with before getting sucked in.
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Happy punting,
