Racing can be a frustrating game at times, and in spells of poor form it can feel easy to sway, but as the great Andrew Beyer (the author of the must read Picking Winners) said “The worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to let his losses, or wins, knock him off-keel emotionally.”
There is no statement more valuable in betting on racing, whether losing or winning. It is vital to keep a level head, in both rich and poor vein. As easy as it is to drop a losing run, it is just as easy to get carried away on a good run, and lose track in the same way.
Yesterday saw four selections, three of which were the more confident 2pt bets, and we only got place money back on one of them, with Miss Mendoza running a big race only to be nutted in the very closing stages at 18/1.
Thursday’s Review…
Sirius White kicked things off, but he never really got going in a race where little made an impact from off the pace. Not one I’ll be falling over myself to go back in on.
Then there was Sahara Magic, who I was sweet enough about, but either she was a non-jigger (saved for another day) or it was a pitifully weak ride. I’m side with the former and will expect her to line up in a winnable handicap next time. She travelled lovely, just didn’t appear to be asked a question.
Fort Augustus was disappointing, looking decidely flat in the rear of midfield, in a race that was run to suit. Tis was markedly below his previous run here (3rd when with Charlie Hills), and he is going to be looking heinously well handicapped for whatever ease he is given in the weights.
Miss Mendoza looked likely making an amends for the previous three, where she looked very likely the best of a fast finishing bunch, but was just reeled back in by a closer from the rear. To me it looked like she twice hit a flat spot in-running, crucially when they were really knuckling down for the run-in. I think she’ll be seen to better over a bit further, although I wouldn’t not fancy her back over this distance. One I’ll keep on side.
From the ‘Other notes’, there was money to be made if laying is your thing, as I called the odds-on Kingman colt, Firewalker, getting beat, who was hammered in the betting from 1/2 into 1/4… Ouch! Now 1 win from 11 odds-on Kingsman progeny at Southwell.
Hill Of Tara 9/2 | 2pt Win
13:28 Uttoxeter
T: Venetia Williams
J: Charlie Deutsch
Four times a winner over hurdles, three of which came with Heavy in the going description and two of which coming over 3m+. The 8-year-old is looking seriously well handicapped for Venetia Williams, who just knows how to place these staying mudlarks.
Four wins from ten over the last twelve months at Uttoxeter, I think this is a nice bit of placement from the yard. A strong traveller, which is vital around the track, and he has both hung and jumped left in right-handed races, so this track (left-handed) should really suit him.
When he was last seen in this sphere (0-100) over hurdles he slopped up by 25 lengths. This looks a mighty big chance, for one still relatively unexposed over fences. The last two have been on unsuitable ground, and his first effort at Bangor saw him lose a shoe. With boxes easily ticked for today, he looks a cracking chance.
Result: Unplaced – PU/10 -2pts
Prominent, pressed leader 10th, weakened home turn, pulled up 4 out (SP 4/1 2Fav)
Sappingirl 20/1 | 0.5pt E/W
15:35 Ascot
T: Paul Nicholls
J: Harry Cobden
This is obviously a warm enough race, but I’m staggered he is such a big price for a yard who does well in these. 11 winners from 42 in Ascot Bumpers, two of which were in this very race in 2020 (Knappers Hill) and 2021 (Henri The Second).
He put a cracking effort in on her first start under rules at Fontwell, despite the track not appearing to suit him and twice looking spooked at the entry to the all-weather section, the second time round really losing momentum at a crucial stage of the race.
Despite that, he looked very likely to finish best, but showed inexperience again when hitting the front. The winner, Katios Queen, has since run a very decent 3rd in a valuable Huntingdon bumper, where the form looks likely to stack up.
If he can put it together here, I think he’ll far outrun his odds. I don’t use them, but if you use Unibet they’re paying 4-places in this as it stands.
Result: Unplaced – 6/15 btn 10½L -1pt
Midfield, outpaced and hung left 4f out, soon no impression (SP 28/1)
Other notes…
I mentioned the Blue Point progeny record at Southwell yesterday (25 winners from 99 runners, 40 placed efforts) and one of his, Blueaway, is the rank outsider in the 5f Maiden (13:05), priced at 80/1. Rod Millman not a name you’d link to Maiden’s, but I’ve seen stranger things happen.
Not a betting proposition for me today at the price, but I’m going to have eyes on No Questions Asked in the 15:00 Novice Chase. Likely one for a Handicap Chase at the Festival come March, who looked far better than his finishing position last time out.
Best of luck with your punting today,
