Everyone has seen a 100/1 winner. Most write them off as freak results. Land on one yourself and it sticks for life. This one sticks for the wrong reasons, because we found and backed a 100/1 winner… and lost. The race was in February 2017, but the lesson hasn’t aged a day: never let one bad run put you off a big-priced horse you previously believed in.
I’ve always been clear on this: back against the odds. Winners arrive at all prices. Outsiders get dismissed because it’s easier for the masses to wave them away than to admit they missed something. “No right to win” is the default view. It’s lazy.
My notebook is the backbone of how I operate. Anything that catches the eye gets logged. Some for winning well, some for being value for much better than the result shows. Samson’s Reach was one of them. Not for winning — for finishing a staying-on 7th of 14, beaten 14¼ lengths, on debut at 50/1 in a Ffos Las bumper. The race looked solid enough, and the way he plugged on after looking finished early caught the eye. More importantly, this was for a trainer with zero bumper winners from 88 runners at that point. This was his 89th. Taking the yards form in such races into account, meant this run was worth marking up further still.
Next entry: Newbury, 18 January 2017. Wayne Hutchinson booked. Low-strike yard (5–6%), but Hutchinson had a strong record for them: 12 wins + 14 places from 87 rides, near a 30% in-the-money rate. That alone demanded attention.
Opening price: 80/1. Fine. Minimum interest bet: ½pt EW (1pt total). Advised on the daily post with the exact reasoning as above. The usual reactions followed — disbelief that anyone would want such a runner. At the off he was 100/1, and by halfway he’d have been 1000/1 in running. Completely tailed off. Beaten 28 lengths, finishing 11th of 14. It looked like the run people expect from a 100/1 shot. I was disappointed. The debut told me he had something.
Then came Bangor – Quieter race. David Bass booked. His record for the yard: 1 win from 10 rides — hardly a negative and certainly not enough to bin the idea. But a poor start to the betting year for myself at the time, and having to front up to the Newbury effort in the Members Post, made it easy to overlook him. Too easy. I let him run without a single mention on the days post, let alone a bet. No flag. Nothing.
My phone pushes instant results. With four kids and life constantly in motion, it’s the only way to stay up to date until I watch the days’ racing replays when everyone is tucked in at night. So, youngest in one hand and phone in the other, I get a notification pop up…:
16:25 Bangor
1st Samson’s Reach 100/1
2nd Atlantic Grey 9/2
3rd Diamond Reggie 4/1
He’d won. At 100/1. He travelled strongly, sat behind the pace, and put away the 9/2 favourite inside the final furlong. Five DMs hit my phone within a minute. I shut it off. The tweet I sent half an hour later said everything: “I feel sick.” couldn’t have been more accurate.
I found a 100/1 winner. I backed a 100/1 winner. And I still lost 1pt.
Because I broke my own rule: forgive a bad run.
The Newbury effort was too bad to be true. There was every chance he’d bounce back, and he duly did but I didn’t follow through. That’s the entire point of this post, and it applies exactly as it did in 2017.
If a run is too bad to be true, assume it was.
If you liked one at a price, don’t abandon it after one shocker.
They’re horses, not machines.
Missing a 100/1 winner you previously identified is a unique kind of pain – Avoid it and trust your gut when the odds are still there.
