Sunday was left well alone, where it looked mighty difficult on the betting front. The only one I looked half at was the big one at Leopardstown in the Savills Chase. I didn’t much fancy taking Galopin Des Champs on, but I kept coming back to I Am Maximus, sat there at 10x the price of the other runners rated circa 170.
He is looking a bold contender for the Grand National in the spring and duly ran a huge race in 2nd at 50/1, with Galopin Des Champs in 3rd. I couldn’t be overly frustrated, as it wasn’t one I really wanted, but that is certainly an angle with merit. Ratings in such races often speak, regardless of their price.
Reflecting on Saturday…
The winning feeling continued with Skylight Hustle obliging early doors at Leopardstown, which came with an element of good fortune. Talk The Talk had loomed upsides approaching the last and looked likely to give the selection a headache on the run-in, but fell badly at the last.
We had encountered all manner of misfortune earlier in the month, and when you’re in them spells, you need to remember that lady luck has a way of evening out. This was likely one of those, though the way Skylight quickened after the last, I’m not as convinced as most were that it was a certainty had Talk The Talk stayed up.
The other two I chanced on the day were minimum bets at Wolverhampton, both following up on recent Irish handicappers finding feet in low-grade UK handicaps — both were awful. The latter though, Cali Case, I’m in no way convinced was put into the race and will very likely have a day in mind. I’m unlikely to follow them over a cliff.
Monday’s matters…
The cards here looked far more appealing, and in truth I easily could’ve chanced a few others. Instead, I’ve stuck with two extremely interesting chances. The first up goes in a Listed Handicap Hurdle at Limerick, which looks very limited in depth for a race in this sphere.
The latter, at Newbury, was one we bet on the 20th December, when she was making her first start over fences. We had her at 12/1, and she was duly backed off the boards into an SP of just 7/2, but she unseated her rider, Freddie Gordon, at the 7th fence.
I fancy her to be well treated off her mark of 125, and the money that came for her last time suggests I wasn’t alone in that.
Slurricane 6/1 | 2pt Win
13:07 Limerick
T: Ross O’Sullivan
J: Danny Gilligan
A relatively lightly raced sort, for a yard who don’t have a plethora of winners every year, this son of Kodiac went into my notebook at the Cheltenham Festival this year when running a humungous race on unsuitable ground in the Fred Winter (5th of 22, off 126).
He wasn’t seen again over hurdles until September, again on ground too fast for him, when running 7th of 17 at Listowel, somehow doing so off a 1lb lower mark. Considering all his best form had been with considerable cut in the ground, they were both runs well worth marking up.
He reappeared again on 30th November at Fairyhouse (Yielding to Soft, Soft in places), for a small but highly competitive 0–145 Listed Handicap, where he ran what appears to be a career-best 3rd of 10, beaten 5¾ lengths.
Hideously carved up by the well-handicapped Ataboycharlie, which sent him wide on approach to the last hurdle, he had to check stride and fall in behind the aforementioned rival, who then blundered the last and fell in his path, completely blowing any momentum he had on the run-in.
The runner-up that day, Bowensonfire, won a decent 17-runner handicap at Leopardstown on Saturday, despite a 3lb rise in the weights to 132, whilst the winner, Zillow, and the 4th, Last Kingdom, both go in the far deeper and more valuable Premier Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown today (15:05), with Zillow being the 11/4 fav as it stands.
In comparison, this looks potentially a penalty kick. It’s Bilbo and Rakki are the only two rivals I fear who could progress past him, but with the Soft to Heavy going description, I think he could mop this up in fine fashion.
I’ve never had a max bet in Ireland, but this was probably as close as I’ve got.
Result: unplaced – 10/12 -2pt
Midfield, in touch with leaders after 3 out, weakened quickly before 2 out (SP 6/1)
Holloway Queen 16/1 | 1pt EW
15:35 Newbury
T: Nicky Henderson
J: David Bass
Backed off the boards from 12/1 into 7/2 for her debut over fences earlier this month, but unseating her rider at the 7th fence. She was pitched into an open Mares’ Handicap for that first tilt, rather than sticking to Novice company, a move rarely made by Nicky Henderson and one that suggests they felt her mark of 125 was overly generous.
She stays off 125 here, but drops into Novice company, meeting the boys too. The jockey bookings suggest she is the stable’s second-string (Nico de Boinville rides Calimystic), but David Bass is no stranger to riding winners for Nicky (106 winners from 498 for a >20% strike rate).
Additionally worth noting, Bass has ridden 16 winners from 159 occasions where he has been riding the yard’s “second-string” in a race. Nicky has spoken of her in glowing terms during his stable tours, labelling her “excellent” over fences.
Result: unplaced – 4/8 -2pt
led, not fluent 1st and briefly headed, joined 8th, awkward 9th, headed 3 out, soon driven, kept on same pace approaching last (SP 18/1)
Other notes…
Not one I wanted to bet today, but one I’ll be watching with interest is Pineapple Island (17:15 Newcastle). The last winner for now-retired Japanese-born Kildare-based trainer Takashi Kodama in 2023, very lightly raced since and now running under Seb Spencer off a lowering mark. She ran a 3½-lengths 6th to 2023 Flying Five winner Moss Tucker (rated 109) when she was rated just 73. I’m not expecting her to retain that sort of ability, but blimey… if she shows any sign of life in this, she could look a seriously well-handicapped mare.
In the last at Newcastle, I had a right look at Howzak (19:15 Newcastle), on account of his reappearance run and consistent evidence of improving considerably following his first run from a break. He ran a not-disgraceful 4½-lengths 7th of 9 on reappearance in a 0–75 Class 5. Today he goes in a 0–60 Class 6, which initially had my eyes lighting up, but there is just too much pace on for me to back him here, despite the price of 18/1. I’ll let him go and hope they cut each other’s throats up top, then hopefully catch him in a quieter-run race later.
Best of luck with your punting today,
