The first of yesterday’s three selections, Ample Warning (66/1) nearly got us off to a flyer, but a mistake at the second-last hurdle cost him 3rd, and us over 12pts profit on a placed runner. It was a huge run for his first tilt over obstacles, and I maintain Alistair Ralph and Johnny Burke are a cracking combo to follow, with so many of theirs massively outrunning big odds.
As if that wasn’t a frustrating enough start, the next up over lunchtime was a real kicker, where Going To Graceland reared twice upon the stalls opening and promptly blew any chances. He gave them a good 15 lengths from the off and was duly minded the rest of the way, serving nothing more than an education.
The last of the three went on the evening card at Kempton and for me was a real eye-catcher. Take The Boat went into her stable debut for Georgie Nicholls looking well enough handicapped on paper, but it looked to me like nothing more than a sighter for them, with Rob Hornby giving her a gentle enough ride.
Despite little asking, she moved nicely down the home straight and looked value for far better than her finishing position of 7th of 12, beaten 5 lengths. I think she’ll be seen to far better effect next time, now they’ll have an idea of what they have. She’ll likely be doing so off of her last winning mark now, too.
Today’s selections…
A quartet of picks across the Southwell card, which long time readers will know is not an ordinary day for me. However, it looked a really good betting card, with open races and some handy enough prices. All four have solid place chances and I’d be mighty disappointed if at least one of these doesn’t go mighty close, at the least.
Sirius White 12/1 | 0.5pt E/W
13:22 Southwell
T: Laura Morgan
J: Ellie Mayo(5)
Returning to the AW following a 78-day break from three poor runs on the turf, but being 0/6 on the turf to 5/24 on the AW, you can expect him to show up far better now.
Because of the poor turf form, he has duly dropped 5lbs in the weights too, which sees the beautiful grey 6-year-old Gelding running off of his last winning mark of 54, which he won off comfortably at Newcastle last January.
Twice a course winner, over both 5f and the mile distances, he has course form in his pocket too. His dead-heat with Fortunate Star over 5f here in November 2024 is well worth a watch. A great ride by Ellie Mayo, but it is some effort by the horse to get back up, having looked likely to be beaten by a long way.
The odds were just about big enough to entice me in here, as despite being a 0-55, I thought there were a few lurkers.
Result: Unplaced – 9/13 btn 5L -1pt
Held up in midfield, headway over 2f out, weakened inside final 110yds (SP 14/1)
Sahara Magic 11/1 | 1pt E/W
14:52 Southwell
T: Mick Appleby
J: Sean Bowen
The only winner in a Novice is always something I look twice at and this filly being one who really caught the eye when winning on debut was a real gem to see as one here.
She ran mighty fresh on debut, showed her inexperience no end for the best part of the race, but when they straightened for home she put her head down and really got motoring. The early part of the race would have meant you’d have forgiven her for running a nothing sort of race, so to carve them down with ease and win it really stood out, especially so being a completely unfancied 28/1.
Her only subsequent run came at Newcastle, which saw her get no end of trouble from start to finish which meant she never really got into her stride, so I’d forgive her that run entirely, but she still wasn’t disgraced in 7th of 10, beaten 7 lengths.
Really interestingly, her dam, Lisiere, has had three of her offspring run at Southwell and they are 3/3;
- Hiroshima in 2019 when it was the fibresand surface, who slapped up by 6 lengths to win at 3/1 on second start
- Dreaming Princess in 2022, who eased in by over 4 lengths to win a Class 6 Handicap at 11/2
- Sahara Magic, our filly here, who won despite having good excuse not to, on debut at 28/1.
She is a huge price here all considered and it is quite remarkable on all the evidence that there is an EW price about her.
Result: Unplaced – 7/11 btn 8¼L -2pts
Held up in rear, some headway inside final 110yds, no telling impression (SP 16/1)
Fort Augustus 16/1 | 1pt E/W
15:52 Southwell
T: Charlie Wallis
J: Hector Crouch
One run at Southwell hus far saw him put a fair effort in for 3rd of 12, beaten 2¾ for Charlie Hills, that coming off a mark of 71 in a Class 5. The winner that day, Haazeez, defied a 7lb rise to follow-up that win in a Class 4 Handicap at Kempton, and the runner up ran 3rd (beaten 1¾ lengths) in a 6f Maiden here at Handicap, with solid form in the upper 70’s.
Fort Augustus goes today off a mark of 64 in a Class 6 0-65, which suggests he could be dangerously unexposed. Furthermore, his sire (Blue Point) has a remarkable strike rate here, notching 25 winners from 99 runners (40 Placed efforts), and when narrowed down to the 6f trip he goes over that progeny strike reads a startling 7 wins from 21.
Hector Crouch takes the ride, who rides the course as well as anyone and boasts an impressive strike rate throughout 2025 of 22 wins from 94 (23.40%).
Money has poured in from somewhere since he was put up. Not sure where from, but not hard to see why he is well fancied. At the 8/1 now, I’d suggest a 1pt Win still harbours a fair wager.
Result: Unplaced – 8/12 btn 4½L -2pts
Held up in midfield, headway over 2f out, weakened inside final 110yds (SP 8/1)
Miss Mendoza 16/1 | 1pt E/W
16:22 Southwell
T: Geoff Oldroyd
J: P J McDonald
Two really nice placed efforts in Maiden company over 5f here at Southwell started her career, where she showed plenty enough speed about her. She came back here over 5f for her handicap bow, but stepped out of the stalls, lost any position and done well 6½ lengths under a gentle ride from there on.
Interestingly, her sires (Lope De Vega) progeny are 0/22 (2 places) over 5f at Southwell, but they see a rapid increase in success when stepped up to 6f for 5 wins from 29 (8 places), which suggests we could see an improved performance here off a lowly opening mark.
Geoff Oldroyd and P J McDonald a combination I really like on the AW and they’ve had a successfull past year with 6 wins and 11 places from the 24 times they’ve paired up on the artificial.
Result: Placed – 2/11 btn ½L +2.60pts
Midfield, headway under 2f out, edged left 1f out, soon pressed leader, went second towards finish (SP 18/1)
That’s my lot today. I did fancy trying to take on the odds-on jolly Firewalker in the 6f Novice priced at 1/2, but I wasn’t happy enough about any of the rest. That’s not to say he won’t be beaten – only 1 of 10 odds-on Kingman colts have won around Southwell.
Curated (28/1) was the closest I got to nailing one against him, but that was hardly solid enough and likely more of a personal preference towards Starspangledbanner progeny, than anything.
In the last I liked the look of Sense Of Worth (17:22, 10/1), but a pitiful record off the back of any type of break put me off chancing that one and it looks a trickier race of the card.
That’s me lot.
Happy punting,
