Wednesday 10th December 2025 – Two at Monster Prices

Before we get into today’s racing, it’s impossible not to look back at yesterday.

On Monday, we took two swings — Manhattan Chute and Cali Case — both fitting the angle I’ve been a broken record about for years: Irish handicappers dropping into UK sphere. The angle is one of the most reliable I’ve ever used, but neither of ours paid off.

Yesterday, however, an Irish raider did oblige – Much to my frustration.
A 4-year-old filly, 22-race maiden, first run for the dual-purpose Irish trainer/jockey Conor Maxwell, crossing the water for a weak Class 6 Handicap at Newcastle. On paper she had very little to recommend her. Her only previous run on the All-Weather came for the modest Chris Timmons yard.

I overlooked her. Took the day off.
She bolted up at 12/1.

I’ll say it again: oppose Irish horses in UK handicaps at your peril. Their marks are nearly always lenient.

Today – Wednesday Means Kempton

For any new readers: Wednesdays = Kempton for me.
Kempton’s All-Weather is my bread and butter — years of form, familiarity, and nuance baked in. I rarely get through a Wednesday evening card without at least one or two interests.

Today, there are two big-priced plays worth chancing – One over obstacles at Hexham and one at my beloved Kempton. Both minimum bets.

14:55 Hexham – Zumbi – 100/1 – ½pt Each-Way

Yes, a monstrous price. No, not a mad bet.

This is a James Moffatt / Charlotte Jones runner returning from a massive 564-day break — and this combo have long been profitable for these exact scenarios.

Moffatt & Jones (Recent Years)

The last two seasons have been poor, but historically this is a potent pairing.

The Layoff Angle

• Since 2015, Moffatt is 5 wins (10 placed) from 25 with 1 year+ layoffs.

• Charlotte Jones has ridden 8 of those, winning 3, including the 50/1 Yukon at Sedgefield.

• When narrowed to December, runners on 200+ day layoffs are 4 wins, 9 places from 15.

That’s a pattern — not noise.

The Horse

Zumbi has barely been seen since May 2023, yet they’ve clearly kept him ticking.
He was a point-to-point winner and won his hurdles debut in 2022. Ability exists.
He returns today off 98, a workable mark if any spark remains.

Given the connections’ historical reliability with long absences, 100/1 is insulting.
Small interest warranted.

20:30 Kempton – Horus – 80/1 – ½pt Each-Way

This is basement grade racing — a 0–60 Class 6 — and it won’t take much winning, so a good opportunity to look for something at price. Favourites in such races often go pop.

Why He’s Interesting

• AW record: 1 win, 2 places from 8 runs.

• Best career run: 4th of 12 in a Class 4 (0–80) off 70, denied clear runs twice.

• That was only last January.

Tonight:

• Runs off 57,

• In a 0–60,

• Over correct trip,

• In a race lacking depth.

He also has a previous win at Lingfield over this distance, off 63, in a 0–65 Class 5.

By any measure, his ceiling is far above this race.

Concerns

• Draw in 8 of 12 — not ideal, but not terminal.

• Rider is inexperienced and gave him an atrocious ride last time, earning a 7-day ban.

But… he’s 80/1. At that price, you accept imperfect conditions.
Treacherous (six-time CD winner) is the danger, but at 4/1, no thanks on an 11-year-old.

Bet365 paying 4 places makes this a no-brainer minimum interest.

Other Notes

19:00 Kempton – Expert Agent (5/1)

I want to back him.
He’s 9lb below his last AW winning mark, and this is his first dip into this grade since March 2023.

But…

• Bad draw.

• A dodgy race shape.

• A strange topweight in Express Train.

• And Comedian Leader going for a hat-trick at 40/1 – You don’t see many of those.

At 5/1, I’m not compelled.
At 8/1 or bigger? I’d get involved.

Conclusion

Two wild swings today — but logical ones:

• 14:55 Hexham – Zumbi – 100/1 – ½pt EW

• 20:30 Kempton – Horus – 80/1 – ½pt EW

Wednesday nights at Kempton rarely pass quietly.

All the best today.