A quieter day in comparison to Monday’s cards and it was very nearly a no bet, but there is a course specialist who I think is vastly overpriced on account of some rotten recent luck in-running, who remains weighted to be competitive. A wide draw to overcome, but with his running style, it may not be a bad thing. At long enough odds, I think he’ll be a fair bet here.
Never better than midfield
A nine-year-old who is thoroughly exposed, but with that we do know he is an out and out course and distance specialist. From fifteen runs over today’s conditions, he has scored seven times and been in the money on a further two, producing a record reading an impressive 114115153421190 (finishing positions across fifteen starts). When you take into account the last two digits of that run have been when brutally hampered, his record looks somewhat remarkable.
His wins here have come from official ratings ranging from 48 all the way up to 69 most recently. Considering all but the last two of those came under the hands of the likes of Trevor Whelan and Liam Wright, along with some close runs under some dreadful Gina Mangan rides — including hard luck of his own at Kempton under her — it’s no real surprise he suddenly found improvement when coming under the steer of Luke Morris, who scored with ease off of marks of 63 and 69.
Both of those wins were more than convincing, winning by 2¼ off of 63, where he had them desperately strung out in behind him, then by 1 length when following it up more than a shade cosily as a 13/8 shot. Now he goes here off of 71, just 2lbs higher, as a 28/1 chance. That’s a price I can’t fathom, and can only be put down to the fact he has been dismissed for two dismal finishes with no account being taken as to why.
Two starts ago he went back over the C&D in the same grade he had won in last twice, where he was sent off at 17/2 but was badly hampered on the first turn and never fully recovered from it, having found himself stone last thereafter and only managing to make up ground when the race was already lost — which explains the narrow beaten margin on paper. He went back for another go, though this time up in grade considerably, but found himself hampered good and proper by the unfortunate fall of Ultramarine, who suffered a heart attack ahead of him. The interference caused was enough to send Chifa sideways and it was a minor miracle he wasn’t brought down too.
He did well to stay upright, let alone finish, and as such the 9¾ lengths he was officially beaten wasn’t worth the paper it was written on — like his previous race, it needs forgiving entirely. However, in the ever bewildering world of the British handicappers, they saw it fit to ease him in the weights for it.
He does need some luck with a clear round, but he is certainly due some. Providing a clear tilt at it, I’m absolutely certain he’ll be finishing as good as anyone in this coming down to the finish. Hopefully there is a good early pace, he can settle into a position on the outside in the rear of midfield, then cut inside for a run home towards the rail.
If the gaps open up, you wouldn’t wish for many other riders around Wolverhampton than Luke Morris. Hopefully he can snipe us a nice return to see a quiet month out. Also worth noting that Bet365, William Hill, SkyBet and Paddy Power, among others, are paying four places on this race as it stands.
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Visit the Shop →How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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