Not a bad day of racing to have a study of, as there was plenty that piqued my interest, but I’ve come out of it with just the one bet — again on account of not being able to justify the prices. This is becoming a recurring theme, and it is only getting harder and harder, which is unfortunately a testament to the bookmakers. They are definitely making the game harder and harder to beat. That said, there is one at Kempton I’m staggered to be getting such a price on, though it is in large part down to a morning drift in the betting.
March draws to a close and it was nothing to shout about, albeit we scraped out of it with a minor positive uptick of +4pts. Considering there was a fair start to the month, it was a disappointing last couple of weeks. I said at the start of the month that March is always one of the toughest, and so it proved — in all honesty I’m glad to just come out of it intact. Hopefully with the Flat now underway the codes will start to balance themselves out a bit better and normal service can be resumed.
Ducked right start, took keen hold, pressed leader, lost second over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
A seven-year-old, Brazen Idol made his reappearance two weeks ago today when running over the Kempton 6f in a Class 5 Handicap off a mark of 72 — just four runs earlier he was winning over the same course and distance in Class 3 company from a mark of 74. That is no ordinary circumstance, and the reason was a near two-year absence from the track.
The gelding made quite a name for himself during 2022, winning four of six races and climbing some 20lbs in the handicap while with Simon Pearce — some achievement for a small stable. But his winning days weren’t finished, as a move to John Butler saw him climb further still, culminating in that Class 3 Handicap win off 74, taking him up to a career-high mark of 79. Having started life on a mark of 46, that is some rise.
What happened since then I don’t know, but he piqued my interest when he popped up on the cards on 18th March, back at Kempton, following a hefty 702 days off the track and having been given a fairly chunky 5lb ease in the weights by the handicapper. With his record at Kempton (was 2/3) and his impressive climb through the ranks preceding him, I did look twice — but he had to be a watching brief only on such a layoff. He went off 16/1 and duly ran a cracker, leading the way at some clip and fighting back gamely when headed coming down the straight.
He was seen off into 2nd by Em Four by ¾ of a length, but it was an almighty run from such a long layoff, and the way he battled suggested he retains every bit of the drive that saw him climb through the ranks as he did. The race was no gimme either, with Em Four a consistent sort — who reopposes today — and two seriously well-handicapped horses behind him in Al Barez and Invincible Speed.
He has every right to improve bundles for that run off such a lay off, which if proves to be the case will see him have the beating of Em Four, especially he so he reopposes the four-year-old with a nice little swing in the weights this time. The only catch for me is his draw, as he is drawn widest of all and the 6f start means he doesn’t have long to get to the front, where he likes to dictate from. That said, I don’t think there will be many fighting him for that position.
When I watched his reappearance run, I thought he would be plenty short enough next time and fully expected him to be comfortably in the single digits — likely sub-5/1. He was 13/2 when I first looked and I quickly marked him down as a bet, so I’m staggered to see him drift this morning out to a price where we can back him each-way. That’s not a bad move either, as there is a slight chance he could bounce following his reappearance run.
Fingers crossed for a good break, an uncontested lead and an equally strong fight down the straight. If he is in the same form or better, we’re onto a great bet.
Others noted… Jena Doudairies (13/2, Wincanton 14:50), Muskoka (11/4, Wincanton 15:20), Jubilant 9/1, Southwell 16:30), Belladinotte (7/2, Southwell 17:02), Rappell (7/1, Dundalk 17:45) and Sir Callisto (3/1, Dundalk 20:15).
Best of luck with your punting today,
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Visit the Shop →How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting
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