Sunday afternoon, Plumpton. Seven races on a Good surface at the end of a long National Hunt season that is gently winding itself down towards the summer, and just the one bet today from me.
The Curragh is the better card on paper — a proper Sunday Flat meeting across the water and a decent watching brief for anyone with an eye on the early-season three-year-olds. I had a long look and couldn’t find a bet I was happy to press, so I’m leaving it as just that, a watching brief. Plumpton is where the one bet lives. Nothing flashy, a small-field Class 5 chase headlining at 2:17, a handicap hurdle or two, the usual Sussex Sunday rhythm. I’ve gone through it three times and the one that keeps coming back is the same horse who keeps coming back here himself.
Disputed lead at fast pace, left in outright lead 8th, headed before 10th, lost position before 4 out
ALTO ALTO has won five races for Chris Gordon and all five have come here at Plumpton. Not four of five, not four and a tidy second — all five. The trainer himself put it about as plainly as it can be put after the last one: he saves his best for this venue, a bit like his trainer really. Bought for 21,000 guineas, he has paid for himself many times over on these undulations.
What nudges it over the line for me today is the grade. When Gordon spoke after that last win he said straight out there isn’t really anything suitable coming up for a while — a Fontwell 0-120 was mentioned, a couple of other options, and the line that matters: we’ll keep him in as low a grade as we possibly can. This is that race. A 0-105 Conditional Jockeys’ handicap chase, his own mark of 105 in a field where the next rated runner is Line Of Descent on 96 and the rest trail off to 98, 86 and 78. On the figures alone he is clear best in the race.
The Racing Post’s notebook line is fair and worth holding up to the light rather than waving away — all five wins have been gained here but arrives under a cloud; yard back among the winners. The stable form angle is a real one and I’m not going to pretend it isn’t. But Gordon was specific about this horse and this type of race, and the grade drop here is significant next to his last effort. Gordon put it nicely too: some horses throw the towel in when the race is too tough; when they’ve got a scent of victory, like Alto had here last time, it’s very different. He’s very much one of those horses — his words, and the form backs them up.
13/2 (Bet365) is a bigger price than I’d have expected when I first looked. The market may be leaning on the stable-form caveat a touch too heavily for a course specialist on the lowest mark he’s had for a while. 2 points Win.
Others to NoteAlto Alto is not the only Chris Gordon runner on the card today. The yard does remarkably well here, and there are four more to keep an eye on: Khalkeau Spigao (2:52, Tom Cannon, 28/1) and Moon Monarch (2:52, Harry Cobden, 9/1) in the same race, Answer That (4:37, Tom Cannon, 10/1), and Goodwin (5:12, Tom Cannon, 11/2). Elsewhere at Plumpton, Double Powerful in the 3:27 is the other one I have a small note against. Across to Stratford, La Marquise in the 3:08 and Largy Pearl in the 5:25, the latter worth a look on Barton Snow form. Then the two at the Curragh that kept me honest on the watching-brief line earlier — Stag Night in the 1:05, interesting on 5f form with a marked drop in grade, and Twain in the 3:35, back from a long layoff due to niggling injuries and treating this as a prep for the Lockinge at Newbury.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Visit the Shop →What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
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