A decent day of racing, especially so at York, and it looks a right punter’s card too. The sort of day where we could have a bit of a boilover, so pay attention to the staking plan — I’ve tried thinking about how best to play the chances. 7pts laid out, fingers firmly crossed we catch one or two right.
The 1pt bets have been really fluffing lines for me, but on reflection I don’t think I’ve been playing them consistently enough and have been scratching too many, which is why I’ve gone with more played today. I wasn’t sold on anything yesterday, and today almost too much, so it levels out.
No bets or post yesterday to mull over, but a quick reflection on Tuesday’s two chanced. THAPA VC was a confident bet at Bath, beaten into 3rd and looked a touch unlucky, but I think he was beaten fair and square by the pace of the race, which I called wrong. The winner came from midfield, which wouldn’t immediately point at a lack of pace, but I think that was a result of George Bass kicking for home too early on My Ambition.
It was that kick on from George Bass which sealed the fate of the selection, as it came at a time when he had a wall of three or four horses in a line ahead of him, all of which were treading water and going nowhere, leaving Jack Mitchell with nowhere to go despite having a lot of horse under him. By the time a gap did come, the bird had flown and a somewhat panicked-looking finish unfolded, from which he ultimately did well to finish 3rd. There was flak being chucked his way for the ride, but there was little he could’ve done. I’ll be going back in when entered in a race with more early pace on, for sure.
The latter bet on Tuesday was the well-bred newcomer for Andrew Balding, but TURRET had himself beaten before he’d even really got going. Far too keen, meaning we never really got a good enough look to gauge him. One I’ll have to only watch on next time, as a result.
Raced far side, in rear, waiting for room over 2f out, going okay when not clear run over 1f out, not clear run when headway inside final 110yds, eyecatcher, 6th of 15 in group (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run on several occasions from 2f out)
Prominent, edged right under 2f out, edged left and weakened gradually from 1f out
Led, headed over 2f out, outpaced over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong
Towards rear, headway into midfield 3f out, outpaced 2f out, hung left over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
Made all, soon clear, reduced lead after 5f, ridden when edged right inside final furlong, kept on well
Plenty to chew through with five bets across the day, but each from their own angle. The Karl Burke filly in the 15:30 is without doubt the most confident play of the day — she has to prove she stays 1m2f, but they’ve always thought she would, and she should have the run of the race at her mercy here.
First up goes REDORANGE for Clive Cox and Ryan Moore. First of all, this is a jockey booking that screams confidence — they’ve run at a near 40% strike rate since 2016, with 11 winners from 28 (4 from 6 at York). Prior to fading off at the back end of last year’s Flat season, he’d run out a winner or placed in nine consecutive Flat races, which saw his rating climb from 79 to 104, with four of the nine in warm Class 2 Handicaps and a Listed event in France (where he probably underperformed despite finishing runner-up). The three standout runs of that purple patch were across Ascot and Goodwood, where he was somewhat unfortunate not to pick up a big pot. With Clive Cox’s sprinters in good fettle, under a big jockey booking and down to the same mark he ran ½ length 3rd of 20 from at Glorious Goodwood, he looks an outstanding Each-Way bet.
Then goes DIEGO VENTURA, who is a bit of an unknown quantity on his first drop into handicap company — but that’s exactly why I can’t fathom the price about him. He’s been constantly tried in deeper water, despite a mark which would’ve been ideal to test him off in a handicap along the way. His form in the UK has been solid, winning or placing on every start, and the only real chinks in his armour have been when tried over further at the back end of last year and on reappearance this year. Back down to an ideal trip now, in a race paying five places… I think he’ll outrun his odds here.
Karl Burke’s FALLEN ANGEL makes her seasonal bow for what will be her last year in training, and I think they’ve found her a fantastic opportunity to prove herself over an extended trip here. Going up to 1m2f from the 1m she was so effective over, but they’ve long stated they expect her to stay. A small field, where she’s likely to get the run of the race on her own terms up front, she could prove a horrible one to try and reel back in. She was bidding for four consecutive Group 1 wins last year before faster ground found her out. This is immeasurably calmer waters.
Then it’s to Salisbury for COUNTER INTUITIVE, who I’ve followed in along the same wavelength as Jack Channon’s improvers — Ed Walker’s string follow a very similar path. His newcomers on the Flat have a strike rate of just 5% from nearly 400 runners First Time Out (18% placed), compared to a striking 19% 2TO (41.5% placed). It’s the exact same principle as Channon — they ease them in for an educational first spin and then see heaps of improvement next time. By Frankel and out of a Dubawi mare, this filly could still be anything and spring a surprise at a big price here. The Ed Walker 2TO angle with Frankel progeny is 2 from 5.
Rounding us off is MINDYOURHEADMIKE in the Bumper at Clonmel. The least confident punt on the day, but I always give Poet’s Word progeny a glance in Bumpers and this looks a noticeably weak one by all standards. Between the ten stables represented in the race, there are only 12 Bumper wins between them all in the last twelve months — five of which for Henry de Bromhead (who saddles short-priced favourite Lirakali) and three for Terence O’Brien, with a couple of other handlers having the odd one here and there. The selection was pumped by a long way on first start under rules last month, but interestingly the yard’s record with runners first time up reads 3/57 (5%), yet 12/77 (15.5%) thereafter. Another pointer to horses finding sudden improvement. Poet’s Word progeny are 17/96 (17.7%) in Bumpers.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Speed Figures · Each-Way Betting · Handicap Races
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