Short and to the point today, without much fluff. A quick turnaround for me, so it’s a very brief, brief. Yesterday was mighty weak on the betting front, and on first glance today didn’t look much better, but there are two I couldn’t let run without an interest.
Prominent, soon raced in second, chased clear leader halfway, keeping on but lost second inside final 110yds
Midfield, headway on outer over 2f out, soon hung right, keeping on 1f out, went second towards finish, no match for winner
HOT TO FOXTROT takes the first, one I put up last month on account of looking well treated off a low mark and the incredible strike rate John Feane and Ronan Whelan post when they pair up. She was a surprise non-runner that day and now gets pitched in here, a 23-runner handicap off bottom-weight. More a hunch than anything I can vouch for on form, but she looks a very interesting one for such a taking combination. 1pt Each-Way at 18/1 (Bet365, paying 1-6 places).
| Runners | Wins | Win% | Places | Place% | P/L | A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 9 | 24.32% | 18 | 48.65% | +95.99 | 1.76 |
PARODA DIVA goes in the last, and she had me kicking myself when I looked back at her win on 22nd May. She was a 25/1 shot, well worth a nibble in probably the worst Class 5 Handicap you’ll see all season, and she slapped up in it to win like an evens shot. Up 5lb for that, but she’s still able to drop in class into a 0-65 Class 6 here, and Patrick Neville is 3/3 at the track.
Neville is the reason I looked into that win at Haydock last month, as he’s been gradually encroaching on my radar with his Flat and All-Weather runners, who have been remarkably consistent for a small stable — a strike rate over the last two years the most powerful stables would be proud of. The A/E of 1.95 suggests they are being completely and utterly overlooked, with the filly winning at 25/1 just one of a plethora of massive-priced runners vastly outrunning their odds. I’m fairly close to filing his runners under a “bet them blind” bracket. 2pt Win at 5/1 (General).
| Runners | Wins | Win% | Places | Place% | P/L | A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 8 | 22.86% | 16 | 45.71% | +71.18 | 1.95 |
Others to note before I sign off. THE GINGER KID (10/1, 14:48 Nottingham) — Ed Walker second time out (they improve massively from the first run), who was sent off 7/2 on debut but weakened out of it; full brother Rajbello (with Richard Hughes) has looked poor, rated just 58, which put me off chancing. TO INFINITY (15/2, Curragh 17:40) — a Wootton Bassett colt making his debut for Joseph O’Brien, a half-brother to two very useful sorts. PORTERS CORNER (5/1, Curragh 19:55) — a Paddy Twomey newcomer from a yard unbelievably efficient with these types, and usefully bred himself.
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
New to this? Read up on: Place Terms · Race Class Levels · Turf vs All-Weather
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
