Yesterday just about summed up how betting the races can be at this time of year. It can be a really tricky period, where there are no major targets in sight, many are either coming off or have just come off of a lay off, and there is no real knowing who is a true going day.
The first up, Different Tone, went for extremely shrewd connections who waste no time with the horses they purchase, and this one was on his fifth start for them yesterday yet to win. He had ran a huge race on his first start for them, over yesterdays course and distance, in what was his last run for Ed Walker before switching to Rebecca Menzies.
Three so-so runs since, where he has run okay without setting the world alight, going back to the C&D connections saw him run his best run yet, he looked as good a sure big runner as you can get, yet he ended up an extremely rare example of a horse on the flat who was pulled up lame.
Extremely unfortunate, not just for us who bet them, but even more so for those connected to him. It means putting a line through it completely and means likely having to give him another chance when freshened up and brought back up to speed.
The latter bet, Sense Of Worth, was one I had high hopes of seeing a vastly improved run drop back in trip, but he continued a poor run of form with probably the worst run of them all.
He took a keen hold in the opening few furlongs, which effectively means he is pulling his way through the race against the rider, which ultimately means when they are asked to produce a finishing effort, there is little to nothing left.
The way he dropped out the back of the telly suggests even had he got into a rythm, he wouldn’t have been anywhere near winning. He will need to show some modocom of improvement before he can become a betting opportunity again, although there is every chance off of his mark when he puts it together he will just suddenly oblige.
I was right to leave Whistle Stop Tour alone under Gregor Walkingshaw at Ayr, who yet again gave him a horrible looking ride. He came over the second last looking like producing a real threat, but as soon as the jockey has to get to work, he looks mighty untidy and the horse just went backwards.
I’m convinced this is a horse who will be absolutely chucked in when a serious rider takes over in the saddle, and I’ll very likely be considering for a maximum bet when they finally see sense and address who takes the ride.
Today’s racing…
There was ample to chew through today, but there was a set of silks that immediately jumped out at me across the cards. The Young family have three runners, the two chanced below plus Griselda (11:40 Lingfield, 40/1).
The earlier one is harder to fancy on paper, but should that one put in a bold show, then blimey… They could really be on for a day of it, as the latter two look hideously well handicapped for their respective races.
Even the earlier one, Griselda, could be a great bit of placement. She goes for an ordinary fillies handicap, and connections purchased her after beating what turned out to be a seriously well handicapped one of theirs at Lingfield in 2024.
Educator 28/1 | ½pt EW
14:20 Lingfield
14:20 LingfieldT: Henrietta Knight
J: Cieron Fallon
Result: unplaced – 5/9 -1pt
Slowly into stride, soon in touch with leaders, pushed along and bumped over 2f out, weakened inside final furlong (SP 25/1)
Titian Blue 18/1 | ½pt EW
17:30 Southwell
T: Mick Appleby
J: Jason Watson
Result: unplaced – 7/10 -1pt
Midfield, headway 3f out, weakened quickly inside final furlong (SP 12/1)
Educator slapped up off a mark of 73 last April, in a very similar race to this, and goes here off just 1lb higher. Under an eye-catching jockey booking, and back in far calmer waters than his last effort where he was given a very easy time of it, he looks wildly overpriced at 25/1.
Then goes Titian Blue at Southwell, who is a ten-race maiden but looks very much worthy of winning one. Her course form over 6f, one in a handicap and one in a maiden, both have her running solidly to a mark in the region of mid 70’s, so her mark here of 67 looks entirely workable.
Additionally, she has on every occasion over 6f, finished looking like she has wanted further, so the additional furlong here should be right up her street. A duaghter of Blue Point, who’s progeny we’ve spoken plenty about with their record at Southwell (25% strike rate from some 100+ runners), this fillies handicap could be an excellent bit of placement.
Other notes…
A big eyecatcher last time out who I wanted on side next time was Grabajabba (19:00 Southwell, 11/1), who was badly short of room turning for home over 7f last time out at Lingfield and still finished with bundles of credit.
I’d have been even keener, given the handicapper has someone seen reasonable to drop him 1lb in the weights for that effort, which on that evidence is questionable.
However, I have serious concerns with him over the mile trip, which he has looked like failing to see out on each of the four occasions he has run the distance. I’m going to chance leaving him here, in a warm enough race for the grade, and hope to catch him back down in trip.
The Cork bumper nearly lured me in, with Gordon Elliott’s debutante Poetic Twist (15:57 Cork, 7/2) leaping out at me. I have a flag for Poet’s Word progeny in bumpers, who are showing a remarkable strike rate in these races, specifically on debut.
If you had bet all 35 Poet’s Word debutantes in bumpers to £10 level stakes, you’d be standing on a profit of nearly £800, with 8 winners and a further 8 places from the 35 runners.
They take on a Willie Mullins favourite today in P2P winner Owning Flower, but her dam, Aunt Rosalie, has failed to produce a bumper winner yet. I’d fancy Gordon Elliott’s charge to get the better here, though the 7/2 about the chance didn’t quite tempt me in.
We will for sure be seeing us chance numerous Poet’s Word progeny in these going forward though, regardless of how this one fairs today.
Best of luck with your punting today,
