A cracking Kempton all-weather card tonight and again one I thoroughly enjoyed getting stuck into. By a wide margin this is my favourite betting track and we’ve come away with three absolutely solid bets with boxes plentifully ticked.
Before today, a brief look back at the four selections yesterday, where we had three bitterly disappointing runs before Ivan Furtado rescued the day with a 25/1 winner.
Lets Love kicked it off at Newbury, who couldn’t have done much to give me more hope on debut, but there was none of that on show here. Beaten nearly 30 lengths, he emptied badly and never looked like threatening. His debut run and the form from it is too good for me to put a line through him just yet, though.
Then Rosie Baloo went at Market Rasen, running 5th of 12 btn 3½L. She wasn’t disgraced and to be fair, this was likely a warmer race than I gave it credit for. She looked far more at home on better ground last time out than she did here too, so I’d expect to see her ket back for better conditions.
Back to Newbury for Tyson, who was desperately hampered at the fourth hurdle and never looked like recovering it. The race turned into a bit of a slog and he had effectively been brought to a standstill and had to get going again, which effectively ended his race not long after it had started.
Finally was American State for Ivan Furtado, who was well nibbled at in the betting all day and had an opening show on course of 12/1 from the 25/1 which was around for him early doors. His race didn’t pan out how I had envisaged, but he battled gamely and really dug it out to come home a winner to turn a desperate day into a positive. Frustrating he was the smallest bet of the day, but at the odds one can’t grumble.
Today’s bets…
Beauty Generation @ 9/1
Beauty Generation @ 9/12pt Win | Kempton 18:00
T: Ross Burdon | J: Rhys Clutterbuck
Result: unplaced – 5/11 -2pts | Slowly away, in rear, headway over 2f out, kept on final furlong, not pace to challenge (SP 10/1)
Supreme King @ 8/1
Supreme King @ 8/12pt Win | Kempton 20:00
T: David Evans | J: Ryan Kavanagh⁵
Result: WON – 1/12 +16pts | Pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well from over 1f out, reduced lead inside final 110yds, just held on (SP 6/1)
Criminal @ 11/2
Criminal @ 11/22pt Win | Kempton 20:30
T: Richard Hughes | J: Donagh Murphy⁷
Result: unplaced – 7/9 -2pts | dwelt start, soon pushed along and close up, ridden along over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (SP 11/2)
Three bets, all of who look seriously well handicapped and all come with some serious course form in the book. There are rare days when you go into the betting feeling sweeter than sweet, and today is certainly one of those. Here’s hoping that doesn’t back fire, but I’m having me a wee Each-Way Trixie on these.
First up goes Beauty Generation for Ross Burdon and Rhys Clutterbuck, whose course and distance form reads a healthy 22305217 for five in the frame, including the one win, from eight runs.
His hightest placed effort of those came off a mark of 73 (2nd in March 24′) and the lowest of any of these runs was off of 66 (2nd in January 25′). He goes here off of 63, a full 3lbs lower than the lowest mark he has previously gone off of here.
Beauty Generation made his yard debut at the beginning of January this year, but his typical slow start put paid to his effort there as nothing got into the race from off the pace, which saw him beaten 5½ lengths in 7th. There appears to be a bit more pace on here, which will hopefully see him come home far more effectively.
Ross Burdon has made a blistering start to his training career, operating at a near 20% win strike on the all-weather from some fifty-odd runners. A handler who has spent time learning from some of the best, he is well worth keeping on side of.
The price with his record and off of this mark, he is a cracking bet to kick the evening off with.
Then there is Supreme King, who goes in search of reversing the form of this race last year off an OR of 77, where he was beaten into 2nd by another of today’s rivals in Shallow (OR 78, 5/1).
It was an example of the better jockey winning the race, with George Wood outriding the troubled 5lb claimer Jordan Williams, who has since disappeared from race riding having previously served a lengthy ban.
They met again next time out, with Rossa Ryan taking over in the saddle from Jordon Williams, and duly reversed the form comfortably to win by a length, getting just 1lb at the weights from Shallow, compared to previous 5lbs.
Supreme King had somehow tumbled to a mark of just 68 before winning his last two races, but that still only see’s him come here off a mark of 73, which suggests he has a bit of room left. Shallow meanwhile runs off of 77, so will be giving Supreme King 4lbs before today’s riders 5lb claim is taken off.
At the weights, this makes Supreme King a no brainer to get the better of last years winner, and looking at the race, I think it’s these two fighting it out, albeit it is very tough to go against Amazonian Dream, who I have back last twice. I want to see the latter stepped up in trip on his last two runs, and I don’t feel sweet on the jockey booking there, either.
However, a Reverse Tricast on Supreme King, Shallow and Amazonian Dream will have my spare change spread across.
Lastly goes Criminal for Richard Hughes, and I genuinely think this could be the best handicapped horse in training, if he can put it all together. He has been a slow burner in training, and Richard Hughes has made no secret of that, but that has been evident in his racing.
However, there is a run here at Kempton over 1m4f last September which floored me. He ran a good 7f of that race pulling the arms off of his rider, Finley Marsh, yet still somehow had enough in the tank to finish beaten just a ½ length to the Godolphin pair of Port Of London and Military Cross (both since ran to marks beyond 80), with a good four or five lengths back to the rest.
It was a beyond remarkable run, where his early exertions should’ve seen him well and truly beaten, so to have plugged on in there against a serious standard shouted extremely loudly.
Criminal goes here off a mark of 80, which I’m absoluteley certain he can and will make a mockery of, as soon as he puts it all together. The shorter trip here (1m2f) should hopefully see him settle into his race better, and with his stamina well and truly proven, he could pulverise this field.
If he wasn’t so quirky he would be maxbet material off of this mark.
Other notes…
Just the one at Southwell who nearly tempted me in at a price, in Nicky Henderson’s only runner on the card in Blue Run (15:55, 9/2).
His debut run couldn’t have gone worse, where he smashed into the first hurdle and nearly took his hind legs from under him, and his jumping didn’t much improve throughout.
Despite that, he showed a good engine between hurdles and Nico de Boinville gave him a very easy and educational spin throughout once it hadn’t gone to plan, taking a wide berth at every obstacle to give him a good sighter.
The race has worked out plenty strong enough too, so this was fairly deep water to be chucked into and verging on stormy waters when jumping like he did, so the 28 lengths he was beaten needs taking into context.
I’d expect a far better round of jumping now and this looks nowhere near as competitive, so if he can put in a clear round he should be right there. That looks a fair “if” though and at the price I wasn’t willing to find out with money attached.
Best of luck with your punting today,
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
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