A break in play was required. I tested fate last Wednesday, giving a quick glance over every runner in the race, all of which I fancied having the beating of, but there was just one who I said “I wouldn’t bet with your money” and, needless to say, Big Bear Hug won on the All-Weather for the first time, at 22/1. When things aren’t going your way, they somehow find a way to really, really not go your way.
The bet was Sonnerie Power in an Apprentice Handicap at Kempton. These races by their nature can produce questionable form, and I think that race was certainly one of them. I knew our goose was cooked with the opening half a furlong, as they came out of the stalls at an unimaginable crawl, to the point it was verging on a trot. With Sonnerie Power being kept at the back of the pace (I use the word lightly) and being entirely one paced, he had no hope of ever featuring. It was a bet to take on a tragically short priced favourite in Sarangpur, who was beaten at an SP of 8/15, but unfortunately I didn’t get the dart right.
Suitably refreshed, I’m hopeful a fresh head will allow unclouded judgement. Ayr looks a tough card, which I’ve dodged accordingly, but both Lingfield and Windsor looked like some decent betting opportunities and I didn’t struggle to find a few to aim at, even if one of them feels like a last chance saloon and another takes on a similar cliff horse of ours.
On a side note — whilst I’ve been resting the head from the betting front, I’ve been getting the Ledger opened up for wider use. It’s been a fundamental tool in my own betting for years now, and one I reckon any regular racing bettor would get plenty from: log every bet, settle it, and see exactly where you’re winning and, more to the point, where you’re not. There’s a 14-day free trial and just £5 a month thereafter, or there’s the Excel version if you’d sooner keep your own book offline. Visit the shop and have a go — the more you feed it, the sharper it gets. You can see mine on the Explorer for a look at how it grows, and that’s only my Daily Dial bets since December.
Towards rear, some headway over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
Led, headed over 2f out, hung left over 1f out, weakened gradually inside final furlong
Midfield, briefly not clear run when headway over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, kept on towards finish
First up HAVANA SKY who is no stranger here, with this the fourth time I’ve chanced him and yet to get a penny back. However, this is the first time since I’ve been backing him that he drops into Class 6 company, a grade he has won five and placed once from eleven runs in. Rossa Ryan rides, who is 2/4 on him, with all of those rides coming in higher grades and going close on both occasions beaten, too. He is drawn in stall 10, but he likes being held up so that isn’t a major negative and I’ll expect him to come across and settle in just fine, with two confirmed front-runners hopefully setting a generous enough pace for him to mount a challenge late. I’m convinced he is brutally well handicapped, but he is running out of chances to show it. (13/2 @ Bet365 and William Hill)
Then is another of Jack Channon’s lightly raced sorts, with HE’S READYTORUMBLE making his second start. He opened up as big as 14/1 but it was instantly smashed up, but being a betting yard that’s a good indicator to me. A full-brother to the yard’s smart Getreadytorumble who ran a nothing debut before improving tenfold when nutted by a head by a decent enough one of Dave Loughnane’s on his second start, who then won three of his next six starts. A very similar pattern is likely to emerge with this one, who was quietly ridden on debut in the typical fashion of their newcomers. The early money suggests they expect a big run and the odds of 7/1 (Bet365) and the 6/1 largely available are more than enough for me to chance.
Lastly is a bit of a wilder swing with a minimum bet on Heather Main’s TANMAWWY, who needs to improve drastically on his two starts this term to be getting involved, but he was on the back of over 550 days off the track, so there is every chance he will. Three years ago he won a Class 2 Handicap over today’s C&D off a mark of 97, and he now finds himself running off of 72 in a Class 4 Handicap. His best days are clearly past him, but if he retains any ability (being kept in training suggests so) then he should be able to get competitive, and at 50/1 (Bet365) and each-way terms paying on four places, I think he is worthy of a small interest.
Crazy Cubana (11/8, Lingfield 17:10), Diane Chasseresse (28/1, Windsor 17:50) and Sea Of The Celts (7/4, Killarney 19:30).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
Every Daily Dial bet ends up in the public log, win or lose. The Formdial Ledger gives you the same engine for your own betting — log bets in seconds, settle them in a click, and see your real strike rate and ROI.
Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhat do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Handicap Races · Best Odds Guaranteed
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