A far quieter day on the racing front, which isn’t a bad thing after the chaos of the last week, and it allows for a far more targeted round of studying the cards. Brighton is a track I always enjoy watching and studying, and Pontefract is one of those course-specialist tracks that are always good to target those being… well, targeted. Three bets on the day, two smaller stakes bets on outside chances and one bet on an aforementioned course specialist. Here’s hoping for a change in fortune.
Saturday’s two chances just about summed up this month for us. First up, Savage Mariner, looked vastly out of his depth over the minimum trip and looks to need the 6f or further. I took a chance there, as Hugo Palmer doesn’t often make a move like that without due reason, but that was one which never looked like paying off. Richard Fahey’s Mussab was an eyecatcher in the race, who didn’t have an easy passage but was eating up ground to take 3rd at 66/1. Flight Control ran a cracker at Doncaster, but was just run out of it into 2nd in the closing stages by Toastmaster, who benefitted from a markedly improved ride under Edward Greatrex.
Held up in rear, outpaced 3f out, hung badly left and plenty to do 2f out, rallied inside final furlong, ran on final 110yds, not pace to challenge
In rear, outpaced halfway, headway on outer over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
In touch with leaders, lost action and dropped to rear 2f out, soon eased, tailed off (jockey said filly lost her action (injured) coming down hill)
A Jack Channon 2TO angle, with Dream Ahead filly SUGAR SUGAR, who showed clear signs of having an engine, but was utterly clueless to her task on her debut at Yarmouth, in a Maiden which had all the right names to suggest it wasn’t the weakest event despite being run in a very slow time. The filly was given an extremely easy time by 5lb claimer Rose Dawes, who barely used the whip (if at all) and allowed her to treat it as a typical learning experience we’ve spoken about with Channon’s newcomers on account of the below record with their newcomers. Narrowed down to Brighton Maiden events with at least one run, they read an impressive 122113.
At Pontefract, REIGNING PROFIT is one I’ve been eyeballing for a while now and today looks ideal to get back to winning ways. The course has been the scene for 4 of his 7 career turf wins, with J P Sullivan aboard for 6 of those 7, he goes now 3lbs below his last winning mark of 81, which came in a class higher than today’s Class 4 heat, and only as recently as April he was seen here running a desperately unlucky race when 4¾ lengths 8th of 13 in a Class 2 over today’s C&D. He was tanking through the field that day and looked certain to at least be challenging the principals, but he couldn’t get room to even think about making a go of it and was eased down thereafter. He had dropped to a mark of 76, 2lbs lower than he goes off today, but a ½ Length 2nd at Hamilton saw him given a rise, but I think he remains well ahead of the handicapper given his conditions, which he undoubtedly gets today.
Lastly is a bit of a muddling race, and one I was ready to play two in until I missed the price about Power Of Prayer of George Baker’s, who made a cracking stable debut last time out on first start since moving over from Ireland. Heavily backed in from around 4/1 into 2/1, that’s a touch short for me to warrant getting stuck in for one I fancy another in too, so that leaves me with AMBER HONEY. She is an inconsistent filly who has been running up until recently under The Horsewatchers, the syndicate Racing TV’s Chris and Martin Dixon are behind, and only recently I was discussing this filly with Chris, as I’ve been hell bent she has been screaming for a step up in trip but was repeatedly tried over the mile. The syndicate have let her go, so she has moved on to Pat Phelan’s and I’m in no way surprised to see her almost immediately stepped up. The ground may be a bit on the fast side for her, being an Expert Eye filly they prefer a bit of juice in the ground, so if she is beaten today I hope they give her another chance over a trip given a bit of rain somewhere.
Others to note: Hes An Angel (10/1, Pontefract 14:05) and Power Of Prayer (5/2, Brighton 14:56).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhat happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
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