Powder kept dry for a few days. With the weather causing disruptions and the standard of racing poor, it wasn’t paying off, so no harm in easing off until more viable opportunities come along.
Today there’s some decent racing to be seen, and what looks like some nice betting opportunities, so fingers firmly.
Double Powerful 20/1 | 1pt EW
15:17 Kempton
15:17 KemptonT: Neil Mulholland
J: Conor O’Farrell
Result: Placed – 2/15 +4pts
Took keen hold, held up in last, headway before 2 out, went second before last, kept on but no match for winner (SP 18/1)
That Lucas Fella 4/1 | 2pt Win
16:50 Newcastle
16:50 NewcastleT: Iain Jardine
J: Andrew Mullen
Result: Placed – 2/8 -2pt
Led, went clear after 3f, reduced lead 3f out, faced challenge 2f out, headed over 1f out, soon outpaced, no match for winner (SP 7/1)
Trais Fluors 10/1 | 2pt Win
17:50 Newcastle
17:50 NewcastleT: Linda Perratt
J: Alex Jary
Result: unplaced – 4/11 -2pt
Slowly away, in rear, headway from over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, no impression final 110yds (SP 11/1)
Onto Kempton where I really like Double Powerful for an EW bet in a race paying 5 Places. I think the better ground, especially after a frost, will find out a few of these more fancied runners, who all look like wanting deeper ground. Double Powerful shot up the ratings last year, loves better ground and has some fantastic course form in the bank, which is a huge factor here.
The first bet at Newcastle is in a rancid race, a Class 6 Classified Stakes, and I ordinarily actively avoid such races. That said, That Lucas Fella stands out like a standy thing in this, and I can see him dotting up here. Another who is likely to be the only pace in the race, and proven stamina over 1m2f, he could run the race out of them over this 1m trip and see it out better than any. It’s real low grade, he’s the highest rated, and looks the best of these by some margin.
Last up is Trais Fluors, who nutted us last week when pipping Pallas Lord to the post, and I think that will prove worthwhile form. He is up 3lbs for that, but this looks a less deep race than any of his last three here, which he has ran well in all, and this race should have plenty of early speed to see him come home strong.
One in here I’ll be watching with interest is Jim Goldie’s Bonito Cavalo, who has been in poor form since having a troubled year, but loves this track and is hideously well handicapped if rekindling anything near his previous level.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Handicap Races · Betting Odds
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