Daily Dial #32 – Thursday 29th January – One Chelmsford Outsider To Bet

The red-hot favourite in this, Secret History for Ed Walker, currently trading as short as 4/9 in the betting, looks a gross price in my eyes. She had a mild hard luck story when last seen on her second start over seven furlongs, but she lost no momentum in that for me and still had every chance to win if she was good enough.

She’s a filly by Ardad, a sire who’s progeny are largely average on the All Weather (operate at a 8% strike rate), and they tend to be at their best over out and out sprint trips. The fact she started out first twice over 7f, and only looked to be plodding in the latter stages of those, doesn’t shout to me she’ll be seen to much better over 6f. Add to that her half-brother, the useful Exoplanet, was upped in trip from 7f to 1m2f.

She sets the standard here, but a 4/9 shot I think she is not, and would be surprised if she won like one, so I’m keen to take her on here.

The one I like, and it was fairly easy, is the 33/1 shot of Jack Channon’s, Seven Fires. She was the only filly and the only newcomer in her first and only run to date, where she was given a really nice introductory ride by Rob Hornby but showed a lovely professional attitude. Hornby only reached for the whip twice but she had already stuck her head down and finished running all the way to the line.

That race has worked out well enough too, with winner winning next twice (including sluicing up off a mark of 70), and the runner-up won next time out too, so her four lengths 4th doesn’t read too bad at all when taken into context of how she was ridden.

Well worth noting that Jack Channon’s strike rate with his debutantes against their second runs;