I was totally content on letting today go, until I had a look at the Chelmsford Fillies’ Novice over six furlongs, which has a vulnerable enough odds-on-jolly at the head of the betting. These are the races I love to target, as if I think a short enough price can be beaten, it means there is plenty of juice about the rest of the field.
The race doesn’t look deep, by any stretch of the imagination, with all bar one of these having had experience and none of them really doing a great deal to suggest they should’ve obliged.
Seven Fires @ 33/1 | 1pt EW
Seven Fires @ 33/1 | 1pt EWChelmsford 17:30
T: Jack Channon
J: George Bass
Result: Placed – 3/8 +5.6pts
Took keen hold, pressed leader, led 2f out, headed but pressed leader from 1f out, weakened inside final 110yds (SP 28/1)
The red-hot favourite in this, Secret History for Ed Walker, currently trading as short as 4/9 in the betting, looks a gross price in my eyes. She had a mild hard luck story when last seen on her second start over seven furlongs, but she lost no momentum in that for me and still had every chance to win if she was good enough.
She’s a filly by Ardad, a sire who’s progeny are largely average on the All Weather (operate at a 8% strike rate), and they tend to be at their best over out and out sprint trips. The fact she started out first twice over 7f, and only looked to be plodding in the latter stages of those, doesn’t shout to me she’ll be seen to much better over 6f. Add to that her half-brother, the useful Exoplanet, was upped in trip from 7f to 1m2f.
She sets the standard here, but a 4/9 shot I think she is not, and would be surprised if she won like one, so I’m keen to take her on here.
The one I like, and it was fairly easy, is the 33/1 shot of Jack Channon’s, Seven Fires. She was the only filly and the only newcomer in her first and only run to date, where she was given a really nice introductory ride by Rob Hornby but showed a lovely professional attitude. Hornby only reached for the whip twice but she had already stuck her head down and finished running all the way to the line.
That race has worked out well enough too, with winner winning next twice (including sluicing up off a mark of 70), and the runner-up won next time out too, so her four lengths 4th doesn’t read too bad at all when taken into context of how she was ridden.
Well worth noting that Jack Channon’s strike rate with his debutantes against their second runs;
Debut
88/6
Win: 6.82%
Placed: 19.32%
2TO
83/15
Win: 18.02%
Placed: 36.14%
Debut (AW)
34/1
Win: 2.94%
Placed: 23.53%
2TO (AW)
28/8
Win: 28.57%
Placed: 50.00%
There is a vast improvement in their runners on their second runs, which suggests Seven Fires tentative ride on debut was no anomaly, and it suggests we can expect see fair improvement on that first run here, especially so going here in a fillies only race against largely known quantities.
She looks an outstanding price all considered.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
New to this? Read up on: Place Terms · Speed Figures · Each-Way Betting
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
