Saturday’s post had to go with just the selections and no substance – Our eldest turned 18 on Friday, so a heavy night was had, then there was the small matter of a Championship Playoff fixture early doors on Saturday, in which I had a fair interest. It’s not something I’ll make a habit of, and I hope it didn’t put too many off, as Union Island returned a 25/1 winner! Not the most consistent of horses, but one who certainly appears to love an undulating track.
He was 4/15 on the turf already and down to his last winning mark, so even without catching his record on undulating tracks, he was a fairly good bet and wasn’t the hardest find for a 20/1 shot. But once you look at his form on such tracks, it becomes staggering he was allowed to go off a 25/1 chance — a win at Beverley, twice a winner at Bath, and close 2nds at Hamilton and Brighton. This was his first run at Leicester, a really quirky rolling track which you can’t really see until you stand down towards the bend after the winning post, but it’s a characteristic which gets a lot of runners unbalanced.
Thankfully it saw him in great light again and he just got up by a nose under a cracking ride from the 3lb claimer Jack Callan. We’ve been due one going in at such a price, with numerous running big races in and around the frame, so it was nice to finally have one pay off. Union Island shouldn’t be nudged up too much by the handicapper for that, and on a similar track I’d fancy him again — a fair chance we’ll be back on him, albeit not at 25/1.
Midfield, headway and in touch with leaders halfway, outpaced from over 1f out
In touch with leaders, midfield 4f out, weakened and raced wide from over 2f out
The first bet of our day is the first race up on the evening card at Windsor, where I fancy Henry Callan to ride another field to sleep in an Amateur Riders’ race, akin to what he did for us with No Knee Never last month at Wolverhampton. Prior to his last ride, Pay Attention who we made a good case against, Henry Callan’s last ten rides in these races read an astounding 1121161141.
We discussed his record in these recently when passing him up at Bath last week — interestingly in contrast to what we just discussed with Union Island, as Pay Attention had shown a severe disliking for undulating tracks at both Brighton and Leicester, and he proved it wise with a poor run. Whilst he’s looking a well-handicapped horse, he won’t be of interest until returning to a flat track like Nottingham, Yarmouth, or even here at Windsor.
Today though Henry Callan has what looks a great chance, with SILVER GUNN showing some serious pointers towards a big run. Six career wins, all coming off higher than the OR 70 he goes off today, and twice a course winner — both off a full 10lbs higher, winning from an OR 80.
This will be his first run at Windsor in this low a grade, and 7lbs lower than any of his course runs, over which he’s run figures of 14337144245 in 11 starts in Class 3 and Class 4 company. Under a rider who’s worth many pounds — possibly a stone — ahead of his rivals, he looks an insanely well-handicapped animal for this drop into a Class 5 contest. 2pt Win at 9/2 (William Hill, SkyBet, Paddy Power).
The latter bet I hold far lower expectations for, on account of expecting to see PORT LOUIS back on the turf by now, but at a big price and under a far more astute rider, I can’t let him go without a minimum interest.
His profile of 2/31 tells its own story — he doesn’t win all too often. But he wound up on my radar when looking at him ahead of his first start for Bernard Llewellyn after switching into UK handicaps from over the Irish Sea. Previously with Noel Meade, he’d been running off marks between 65 and 75, and on occasions ran well in competitive enough races. Entering into UK handicaps off 54, I thought he could be a very well-handicapped horse for a small yard.
On stable debut he ran 3rd of seven at Lingfield, beaten just 3 lengths despite completely fluffing the start and losing a shoe. I’d let him run that day, but it was a performance which certainly cemented him on my radar. I missed his next run, but was grateful for it as he put in a dismal bid, running 9th of nine and beaten 13 lengths.
That horror run meant I’d marked him a watching brief only next time out, which was in an Amateur Riders’ event on the turf at Doncaster, where he was Miss Chelsea Edwards’ first ever ride under rules. He went off 50/1, ran an absolutely huge race, and had the young girl attracting some flak, as he really should’ve won — tanking through the race and not getting much assistance from the saddle, only to be beaten just 1¾ lengths in 2nd of the twenty-two runners.
The vast improvement on a switch to turf meant I marked him down as a must-bet when next seen on grass, but he’s only been seen on the all-weather twice since, both under the same amateur rider and to no avail, so I’ve let him go each time. However, he now goes off a tumbling mark having hit a low OR of 49, and gets a switch in the saddle to Daniel Muscutt, whose only two rides for this yard since 2019 came last month — winning both. I remain fairly convinced we won’t see the best of him until he’s back on the turf, but at the odds and with an eyecatching jockey booking for this yard, I couldn’t not chance a minimum stake. 0.5pt Each-Way at 28/1 (Generally Available).
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Going Descriptions · Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
