The racing is leaving little to get too excited about at the minute, especially on the betting front. With the selections that have been chanced often not having races unfold remotely how I’ve expected them too, I took stock and have let a few days run.
This is a funny time of year for it, so there is no harm in stepping back and letting a few run by without a financial interest, and instead keeping it at a watching brief for future interest. That said, today couldn’t go by without a dabble on one who outrun odds for us last week to finish 2nd at an SP of 66/1, where we again chance an ex-Irish handicapper having recently fallen into the UK sphere.
No Return 9/1 | 2pt Win
20:00 Kempton
20:00 KemptonT: Charlie Johnston
J: Callum Shepherd
Result: unplaced – 6/8 -2pt
Took keen hold, soon led, headed and weakened from over 1f out, short of room final 110yds (SP 8/1)
We played No Return this time last week, where I had the below to say about his chances, and he goes today off of the same mark of 80 and in a race that looks utterly devoid of any forward going early pace.
A recent addition to Charlie Johnston’s yard having moved over from Ireland (my favourite of angles), where this son of Kodiac ran healthily to a mark exceeding 80 numerous times, and won off of 79 with ease on his last start in Ireland.
He first ran in the U.K. under Charlie Johnston in November on the back of a lengthy lay off, got a bad start and then found trouble in-running, which saw him minded home under relatively little ask by Joe Fanning. He was dropped 2lbs by the handicapper for that, which on his evidence in Ireland, seems remarkably lenient.
Oliver Stammers rides Lingfield with great confidence, so off of a lenient looking mark in a small enough 0-85, he should have every chance of being involved should he not fluff the start. I can’t fathom the price about him.
Every chance they will ping and make a run of it from the front here, as he had done previously in Ireland, and should they opt for those positive tactics I’d quite fancy them to lead pillar to post if they keep it sensible.
My only reservations are twofold – Callum Shepherd is a very able jockey, but he appears to have serious issues around Kempton, where he holds a very weak strike rate compared to his record on all AW tracks.
Additionally, Al Barez is screaming at me, who looks so hideously well handicapped he has to rank as a danger. I don’t see this race running to suit him, but I’ll be very interested to see how he fairs and Jack Mitchell is jocked up, who is 3 from 10 on him.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
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