Two bets on the day, both coming on the All Weather at Dunstall Park, Wolverhampton. Two different angles, one being an eyecatcher who went in the tracker last time out, and one looking extremely well handicapped who drops into this grade for the first time.
No returns from yesterdays two minimum bets, and deservedly so. Neither ever in their respective races, and both with lines firmly through them. Georgey was taken on account of the yards record in Maiden Hurdles and had a possible excuse with losing a shoe the last day, but he looked a dogged ride again.
Latterly I chanced another of Scott Dixon’s runners and was again left frustrated. Fifteen years I’ve been seriously betting the races and that one left me wondering if I’ve ever had a secent run off one of his I’ve bet. Like I recently mentioned a weak record when betting Newcastle’s All Weather track, Scott Dixon I think may be my eqiuvalent trainer.
Today’s two selections…
Militzie @ 9/4
Militzie2pt Win | Wolverhampton 19:00
T: Stuart Williams | J: Sean Levey
Riot @ 11/1
Riot2pt Win | Wolverhampton 19:30
T: Charlie Wallis | J: Rob Hornby
The Eyecatcher behind Seven Fires
First up is one who went in the tracker when I was following recent rewarder Seven Fires, where on her second start there was an extremely eyecatching debutante in Stuart Williams filly, Militzie.
Similarly to Jack Channon’s stable, we’ve discussed yards who’s debutantes improve for their first run, and the Williams’ yard are likewise. Debutantes on the all weather read just 1/15 (none further placed, just a shock 100/1 winner in 2006), compared to 5/32 (a further 5 in the frame) on their second start. Not as striking a pattern as Jack Channon, but a big pointer to improvement.
The filly made a dreadful start on her first start, missing the kick and proceeding to be woefully outpaced in the early stages, looking likely to fall out the back of the telly. However, around the 4f pole she really started to get her act together, and only got better and better as the race went on.
She was eventually only beaten 3½ lengths in 4th and just a ½ length down on Seven Fires, which I think will prove very likeable form. If she can start off where she left things there, I think she is without doubt the one to beat and as such I expected her to be far shorter than this in the betting.
First Drop Into Class 6
Next up goes in the following race, so after a quickfire of positives here in Riot for Charlie Wallis. In danger of chasing after yards who I don’t tend to find much success in again here, but the 9 year old who has run a win or place in 15 of 37 starts, drops into Class 6 company for the first ever time here.
All bar six of his 37 AW runs came in Class 3 or 4 company and since dropping into Class 5, where he won once in the six, four of those have been in races too slowly run to give him a chance.
He goes today in a race where at least seven of the eleven like either being up with or on the pace, so there should be no danger of not getting a truly run race, which is what Riot will need to finish his race strongly.
Interestingly, he gets headgear applied for the first time since moving to Charlie Wallis, something he had on near-on every AW run, and he goes off a mark 12lbs lower than when he joined Charlie Wallis.
At double digits, he is a sound bet. If you want to hedge your bets, Bet365 are paying 4 places on the race, at around 9/1.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
New to this? Read up on: Pace Bias · Place Terms · Race Class Levels
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