And that’s May in the book. We close the month on +38.70pts to advised stakes – a strong one by any measure, and one that came up just short of a record. January still holds the mark at +39.82pts, and we missed it by barely a length.
Five winners and eleven places from the thirty-two advised, and two of those winners, Union Island at 25/1 and Mindyourheadmike at 40/1, would be the highlight of most years, never mind a single month. For what’s been a genuinely tricky month to study, I’m more than happy to shake hands on that.
Yesterday’s three ended things on a damp note, and it’s what cost us the +40pt barrier – but that’s the game. MUKER clearly wasn’t at the races for whatever reason, and was nearly pulled up. NEW YORK MINUTE I won’t be writing off, though. A very messy race under Hector Crouch, and one he’d have made a far better fist of with a clear run and a cooler ride: hampered badly on the turn for home, no room up the far rail, then switched mighty wide to come stands side just as his far rail finally opened up, and minded home once the chance had already gone. I won’t be steaming back in next time by any means, but he was a good bit better than the bare result reads.
Onto June, then… two to get the new month going, both win bets, both on the evening card.
MY CHAMPION takes the first, and the bet is all about the step up in trip. Everything on paper says he shouldn’t want it. His pedigree points to 7f-1m as his ceiling, yet the way he’s actually races says he’s crying out for a mile and a quarter and his stride data backs it up. I’ll trust what I’ve seen on the track over what the page says every time.
Watch his run below, at Wolverhampton on 10/03/26. Fifth of five you’d ordinarily stick a hard line through him, but there was a good hint in there if you watch him closely. He was travelling as well as anything down the home straight when his path shut in front of him, momentum gone in a stride, and left to finish on his own steam with the race gone. That was his first test at 1m2f and, having disappointed back at a mile since, they go again which suggests they liked how he went.
2pt Win at 9/1 (Bet365).
HAVANA SKY goes in the lucky last, and he’s one who’s been suggesting his time is close. The big one here for me is in the saddle, with Oisin Murphy taking the ride, and there’s no better man to be sitting on at Wolverhampton, where he’s held the highest strike rate of any jockey here over the last five years, by some margin.
The real story, though, is the handicapper. Havana Sky reeled off five on the bounce at the back end of 2024, and he’s been scrutinised pretty harshly for it ever since — the assessor keeping a vice-like grip on him. That grip has only just started to loosen… He’s 2lb above his last winning mark, but he’s drawn plum, the race is a notch softer than he’s been asked to run in recent, and with Murphy up I reckon this is where it all comes good and I think the booking suggests the yard agree.
2pt Win at 9/2 (general).
Others to note before I sign off. There’s a warm maiden at Newbury (15:25) worth eyes — VELVET JELLYSTONE PARK (6/4) sets a rock-solid benchmark as an improver of Jack Channon’s and only just failed to be another Channon 2TO winner the last day, with GOLDMINE (14/1) for Ed Walker the one to run a good deal brighter than last time.
Over at Windsor (17:40), EMERALD BAY (16/1) — a Bayside Boy newcomer I had tabs on after his second run — has little to show from two starts, but drops in trip today despite shaping as though he wants further, around 7f – Not a betting option by any means today. And the 18:00 at Wolverhampton is a rancid little heat that won’t take much winning: FISTRAL BEACH (8/1) enjoys it round here and has a real understanding with his rider, while HAPPIER (28/1) is relatively unexposed on turf — a win and a place from just three runs. Her best form is over the minimum trip but I’ll be watching after her with an eye on backing her in a similar race over the 5f or 6f, but I can’t fancy her over today’s 7f stretch.
Two to start the month, then. Best of luck to all getting involved — and here’s to June being as productive as May. Be Lucky!
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Place Terms · Each-Way Betting · Handicap Races
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