A bumper day of racing to settle the withdrawal symptoms after a few days without, and it looks an absolute feast of decent stuff. That said, nudging out some decent bets is harder on days such as this.
The King George VI isn’t a betting race for me this year, in what looks a seriously strong renewal. The fact last year’s winner, Banbridge, is sitting at 16/1 in the betting tells you everything. I think Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File will enter their own race down to the finish and would fancy Gaelic to come out on top in that, but neither are a price I want to be involved with against each other.
Kempton looks decidedly difficult and as such, I’ve trodden very lightly, although it will get my focus from a viewing standpoint. It would’ve been very easy to get seriously carried away today, but I narrowed it down to three I was happy with at the prices.
The one bet at Aintree is a different stance, purely taken on account of value against a heinously short-priced favourite who has, in my humble opinion, done no more so far than the one who sits at 9x the price.
Barlovento 5/1 | 2pt Win
12:45 Kempton
T: Olly Murphy
J: Sean Bowen
Similarly to why I got involved in the next selection, I took a keen interest in this race on the basis of wanting to take on Noble Park as a 6/4 shot, which looks far too short, and it set the tone of the race for me, in what looks a less competitive contest in contrast to the day.
Having shown a good level of form already, Barlovento’s only real dip was a 30 lengths 2nd on his last start over hurdles, where he was found to have had a serious breathing issue. A wind-op and 300-days later, he ran a sound reappearance run at Exeter.
Beaten a ½ length by Tizzard’s U Cant Be Serious that day, who has since followed up to defy a 5lb rise (won off 124), this mark of 121 (up from 117 on reappearance) looks every bit exploitable, despite the handicapper having obvious reservations about how well-handicapped he may be over fences.
Result: WON – 1/10 +10pts
In touch with leaders, headway to lead 2 out, kept on run-in, ridden out (SP 4/1)
Idaho Sun 9/2 | 2pt Win
13:05 Aintree
T: Harry Fry
J: Bryan Carver
His debut bumper win has proven to be probably the best bumper that will ever grace Newton Abbot, and he has since done his bit to bolster that with his side of the form.
His only defeat to date was a 6½ lengths 6th of 17 in the Champion Bumper at this year’s Cheltenham Festival, which is no disgrace. His two appearances since, both coming over hurdles, have been walks in the park victories at odds of 4/9 and 1/14, but he has dispatched both races (each consisting of 12 runners) with consummate ease.
Rated by the handicapper at just 3lbs below the hyped favourite Mydaddypaddy, I couldn’t let him go at the sway in odds where he has every right to really stick it up the Skelton jolly.
Result: WON – 1/6 +9pts
Took keen hold, in touch with leaders, headway before 3rd, led before omitted 2 out, ridden 1f out, kept on well (SP 3/1)
Diamondonthehill 9/1 | 1pt EW
13:12 Wolverhampton
T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
J: Hollie Doyle
Not the most straightforward horse to win with but has plenty of ability. Not being the easiest to win with means he never falls too far out of the grasp of the handicapper, and as such despite the jump in grade here, I fancy he could pop a surprise.
In four rides under today’s jock Hollie Doyle, they have recorded a 2122, off marks of 84, 83 (Won), 85 and 85. Going again today off 83, in a race which should be run entirely to suit, he should very well be there in the mix come the finish.
Expect red-hot fav Stratusnine and Flag Of St George to go forward and set a decent pace, which should ideally suit Diamondonthehill to sit in behind them and come through down to the finish. A small field, with near-guaranteed pace on… This looks as good an opportunity as any.
Result: unplaced – 4/6 -2pts
Prominent, in touch with leaders from over 4f out, prominent from 2f out, hung right and weakened inside final furlong (SP 11/2)
Other Notes…
Really tough to let Rosie Baloo run without a financial interest in the opener at Wetherby, who we’ve followed closely here. She has been given an opening mark of 102, which has astounded me, and I just hope that mark doesn’t get blown apart today.
She is just a 9/2 shot in a big field Maiden Hurdle, over the same 2m3f trip which I think is on the short side for her. If this was a handicap I’d steam in, even with the slightly inadequate distance, but in a Maiden, I just fancy her to bump into a few who have a bit more zip.
In time I expect her to prove the best of any of these by a stretch, but I don’t think it will be over 2m3f.
Best of luck with your punting today. Enjoy a superb day of racing with the cold meats, a few beers and some family time. Encourage any young’uns to give the racing a watch and be inventive with how you interest them. I used to bet my uncle for a few pence back when I was a wee one.
Be lucky,
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Speed Figures
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