No Cigar for Havana Sky…
The only bet yesterday, Havana Sky, had chances ended no sooner as they’d started, with a dreadful piece of race riding by Kyle Strydom on Sensorium from Stall 13, which saw the rider handed a lofty 12-day ban over the New Year period for his antics (see Stewards Report).
Havana Sky got a fairly good break out of stall 7 and looked to be taking up an ideal position, but Strydom thought better of that and effectively calved up half the field to force a position from the widest draw.
He effectively ended chances for a good five of these, but Havana Sky was on the receiving end of the worst of it. He ran too freely from that point on and was duly minded the rest of the way home by Ed Greatrex.
These things happen, but it is vital to look at results like this with context as it would be very easy to look at a result of 12th of 12, beaten 24 lengths and write it off as a dreadful bet. It wasn’t and these things happen in racing.
I’ll be wanting a bet again back there over 6f if he goes off of a similar mark. If the handicapper wasn’t paying attention, he may even drop him a bit in the handicap, though that is probably wishful thinking.
Pimpernel Flew…
I gave a nod to the Plumpton Bumper yesterday, which on paper looked likely to be a warm race and as such I refrained from a bet. However, one who was of interest, Flying Pimpernel (11/1) ran an almighty race and is one who goes firmly into the notebook for when going hurdling.
She looked likely to fall out the back of the telly at one point, but only improved the further she went and was nearest at the finish, beaten just 3¼ lengths by Neil Mulholland’s game winner Joan’s Choice, who completed a nice double for the yard.
Flying Pimpernel shaped like a lovely sort, who just the 2m1f flat gallop on the sharp side and should really come into her own when entering handicaps over hurdles. I’ll be watching with interest what the handicapper does with her now, and where she goes next.
On to today…
A decent enough All-Weather card on at Newcastle, though not historically my best hunting ground. There is also one strong statistical pointer towards a solid bet at Wincanton, who is already attracting money in the market.
Joyau Allen 8/1 | 2pt Win
13:30 Wincanton
Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Paul Nicholls runners in Novice Hurdle’s are no secret, but their strike rate in these at their local track Wincanton when ridden by the stables Harry Cobden read an incredible 40 winners from 69 runners (58% Win).
Granted, a lot of those are favourites, but restricting the list to that of non-fav’s still reads an impressive 30%. That does mean an unbelievable 31 of 38 fav’s have obliged – A staggering record.
A full-brother to Envoi Allen, today looks a very good opportunity to get back on track, having been pulled-up at Taunton in November when returning from a 622-day-break.
Interestingly, he featured in the list Paul Nicholls discussed on his Stable Tour on AtTheRaces.com;
“He is a full-brother to Envoi Allen, who won the Ballymore as novice. Joyau Allen won his bumper at Exeter and then sustained an injury when runner-up back in February of last year. He came back in early and has done plenty of work and he jumps really well. Hopefully, he is going to have a productive season in novice company.” – Paul Nicholls, attheraces.com
Result: Unplaced – 7/10 btn 44L -2pts
In rear, some headway before 5th, never on terms, bled from the nose (vet said gelding had bled from the nose) (SP 4/1)
Pallas Lord 16/1 | 0.5pt E/W
17:15 Newcastle
Trainer: Donald Whillans | Jockey: Jason Hart
The latter punt, which is an apt word for it, goes in a basement event at Newcastle and needs a bit of trust after a rather feable display earlier this month, but this further drop in grade is just too good a chance for a 16/1 bet.
Pallas Lord has form figures over today’s C&D prior to that run read 4212111, but he faded quickly in that 0-60 Class 6. He is back in a Class 6 today, but this is a 0-55 and he has been dropped a further 3lbs.
Jason Hart takes over in the saddle, who has ridden him to four wins over this C&D, which bodes far more positive. I fancy he could run them down here, providing he doesn’t get caught in a fight for the lead with Marcello Si.
Not one you’d want your last fiver to be resting on by any means, but well into double figures and down to this grade, he is a very obvious value bet.
Result: Unplaced – 8/12 btn 5¾L -1pts
Pressed leader, weakened over 1f out (SP 20/1)
Other Notes
The opener at Newcastle (15:12) was one I was close to playing a chance, with the likeable yard of John Berry’s running Little Peter (12/1), who has a solid record in this grade of 2 wins and 2 places from 9.
He slapped up off of this mark (69) over C&D this time last year and this is the first time he has run off such a mark since. He twice ran firmly to an improved mark of 72 on the AW since, but a dip in form on the flat over the summer saw his rating eased.
I have reservations about her rider however, with Gina Mangan one I hold reservations over and as such, have to be extremely confident to play – which I’m not today.
Atlantic Sunset (22/1) was one at a price I half fancied chancing against, as one of my markers to look at is any Charlie Johnston AW runner being significantly upped in distance for the first time.
They have hit 9 winners from 31 such runners (18 in the places) and this one looks a very typical profile of one. However, I didn’t like the pedigree one bit, with a questionable run of staying power throughout both the dam (Green Room) and stallion (Waldgeist).
That’s not to say he won’t, and at the odds it’s not the worst to chance, but I wasn’t feeling it enough to get involved myself.
The Irish Raider angle…
Mark Fahey heads over the water from County Kildare to Newcastle, having struck 2 from 9 in the U.K, and both have attracted some early money in the betting.
First up is Daonethatgotaway (17:45, 9/2), who looks weighted to win and has form on the All-Weather in Ireland, but all his form is over a mile (8f). Over 7f today and a 7lb claimer on board who is yet to ride a winner… I didn’t fancy.
The other is more interesting, with Mount Ruapehu (18:15, 6/4 from 5/1). Some 18lbs below the mark he last won off on the AW (69 down to 51), he could well be absolutely chucked in, but that AW win did come some 23 months ago, in January 2024.
The early price wasn’t enough to tempt me in, so I wouldn’t even consider the idea now, but he is an interesting one to watch nonetheless. The steroetypical Christmas Gamble, should they pull it off.
All the best today,
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
New to this? Read up on: Place Terms · Race Class Levels · Turf vs All-Weather
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