A poor end to June, which ends in the first loss over a month since being back at it. A snap back to reality and ultimately it’s just how the game goes. Considering the strike rate over the month, it could’ve been far worse than it was. Just two winners from the thirty-four chanced, I was fortunate to have Gymbaazy (33/1) and Deressa (10/1) land, who saved it from being a dismal one. June total: -9.58pts.
A decent set of cards to grind through today and three very appealing bets taken, from a total of just four who were solidly looked at — bodes well.
Prominent, ridden and keeping on when slightly hampered inside final furlong, soon eased (jockey said he had to snatch his mount up inside the last furlong)
Held up in rear, headway on outer over 2f out, edged left over 1f out, kept on final 110yds
In touch with leaders, outpaced when hampered 2f out, edged left when weakening inside final furlong
First up is GIRL BEAR at Fairyhouse, one from the notebook from her previous run, where she made a real good fist of it from the front at Roscommon. She goes in calmer waters today, in a fillies’ only handicap and, significantly, gets a marked upgrade in the saddle in the shape of Billy Lee, who gave us the peach of a ride to get the aforementioned Deressa up recently. Lee is 2/4 for the yard here, so this ranks as an eye-catching booking indeed.
Next up is PADUA for Hughie Morrison and Hector Crouch. Morrison doesn’t send many to Epsom, despite only being based in the relatively near Newbury, but of those he does he holds a strong strike rate of 20% from 120 runners, a P/L of +25.54 and an A/E of 1.3 — they are vastly underbet. The colt won his first turf start over today’s trip last summer with ease, in a very similar race, and made a good fist of following it up at Sandown off 4lbs higher, but he overraced badly for over half of the race and left himself nothing in the tank, duly emptying in the closing stages. Gelded since and a cobweb run had, I think he’ll put a big bid in here. Worth noting too that of the Morrison/Epsom strike rate, Hector Crouch has ridden just three of those, resulting in a form line of 211.
Lastly is OFFIAH’S BOY, who goes in a basement grade Class 6 handicap at Bath. A track where course form is key, especially so on quicker ground as it rides faster here than anywhere in the country, and this lad’s record at the track on fast ground from three runs has seen him run a nose 2nd of 6, 1st of 11 and 1st of 8, both wins coming under today’s rider, Taylor Fisher. He likes to go forward, which isn’t necessarily an advantage at Bath — if they go too soon, they can be found pedalling come the closing stages — so the fact Fisher has judged it perfectly both times previously suggests he knows exactly what is required here. I’ve played this each-way, as Bet365 are offering 3 places for this 7-runner race. He runs off 3lbs lower than his last winning mark here; that was too good to pass up without a bit of insurance.
The only other I’d had a good look at was Jack Channon’s Concert (Thirsk, 15:10), who has since been made a non-runner.
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhy are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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