One today, whose race I’ve had eyeballs on all week. In a month which hasn’t really got going, going Max about one feels like asking for a kick in the teeth, but the run she put in can’t be ignored and the form took a very nice boost yesterday, so I have to keep a level head and go with the gut.
The rest of the day is a typical Saturday, which is very tricky stuff. There were a few I spent too long looking at really, but none others on the day I could even get close to being confident enough about. I think with how the betting has been of late, it pays to pick bullets wisely, and we’re certainly not on our own in finding the going tough. Certainly been one of the funnier times of it from what I can remember, and right up there with the toughest of runs I’ve experienced.
Took keen hold, prominent, weakened 2f out (trainer had no explanation for the poor form shown; vet had nothing to report)
Below is the replay of this Stuart Williams filly on debut at Newmarket, where she ran an almighty race at 50/1 to be beaten just 1¼ lengths, despite getting hampered twice in-running, the second of which was enough that you’d have excused her falling away completely, but she instead gathered herself with ease and still finished motoring. It was a remarkable run, which is best explained with the below rather than me trying to do it justice. Stuart Williams has just a 3.3% strike rate with newcomers, so any who run with promise on debut are well worth taking forward, and to put a run like this in, in a race which looks very likely to prove strong, is a serious nod. However, it’s worth noting that the 4th, Sorrengail, who is in the Godolphin blue with the white cap below, scored impressively at Ascot yesterday, with the 3rd from the below, Speed Of Sound in the white silks, following her home. That’s a really nice form boost ahead of today, and ultimately sealed the deal on going in hard here on a bet I’ve been eyeballing all week.
Never Enough (6/5, Ascot 13:10), Air Force One (12/1, York 14:00), Eniac (16/1, Newcastle 14:05) and Desert Cop (25/1, Ascot 17:20).
Good luck all.
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhy no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Pace Bias · Each-Way Betting
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