The rain has finally come, and with it a plethora of non-runners across the day. A day to look for the mudlovers and to tread a fair bit more carefully. There is no factor bigger in racing than the going, so looking for major pointers towards one who will appreciate it is a must. Proven form on deeper ground is a major positive, but I’m taking a chance on a debutant who hails from a sire with a remarkable record at producing mudloving types.
I dipped out of yesterday’s cards, with a day out of burying the head in the cards to keep me fresh enough. Friday was a bitter pill to swallow, with two very confident punts running stinkers and an outside squeak with a significant flag on the dam’s side somehow getting beaten when looking a very, very, very likely winner. Cumnock, who went for a yard with zero profile in bumpers, ran a screamer, and I just don’t know how they have gotten her beat. She had to track on the outside of the field, with the winner taking the far shorter route up the inside, which was undoubtedly the deciding factor, but she should’ve won the race regardless. As I flagged on the day, the race was a noticeably weak bumper, and being a very obvious unfortunate loser, she’ll be plenty short enough in the betting next time out, so I fear that was our chance to make her pay. We’ll see.
Midfield, pushed along halfway, headway against far rail over 1f out, ran on well final 110yds, promising
Taking a chance today with FLORAL MAID, a Calyx filly making her debut for Brian Ellison. There is a major flag against this one, in that today’s rider Cam Hardie is probably my least preferred jockey, but on looking at his record on Ellison’s debutants, his last six rides have resulted in figures reading 153323, which is impressive enough without taking into account that the winner was priced at 125/1 and the four placed efforts were 50/1, 66/1, 80/1 and 150/1.
Calyx progeny have a record of 11% (78/659) on Good to Soft or better ground, and 19% (31/161) on Soft ground or worse, showing a distinct improvement for deeper ground, but that record is notably boosted to a remarkable 10/26 (38.5%) on Heavy ground (4/10 for the fillies). Calyx progeny can go well first time out too, and his debutants at Beverley read 14232, suggesting they like the track well enough.
The other Calyx progeny going on Beverley’s Heavy ground today is Galyx for Jack Charlton, but that looks a tricky enough race, with a few profiles in there who will appreciate the ground. At 11/4 he was easy enough to skip past.
Galyx (11/4, Beverley 13:40).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhy no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
New to this? Read up on: Going Descriptions · National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules
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