One play today, on what is a quiet enough day of it. Lingfield I struggled to get hopes up on any of it, so let that run with no interest, but one race at Wolverhampton pricked my ears on account of one I’ve been waiting for.
Havana Sky 8/1 | 1pt Win
20:30 Wolverhampton
T: Ed Dunlop
J: Edward Greatrex
A four-year-old I’ve kept tabs on since a huge run over today’s course and distance (6f) in October, where he had trouble in-running on the inside rail and was then brutally smashed up when switching for a run on the outside.
He done mighty well to finish just four lengths down to Papa Cocktail that day, who has since run solidly to a mark of 77 since, and wasn’t disgraced in a 0-90 Class 3 Handicap. Having run that off a mark of 68, today’s mark of 71 should still be within his ceiling.
His C&D form reads 11513 – The 5th being a solid enough run up in class, in a race where the form looks extremely strong, and the 3rd being the aforementioned hard luck story, again where the form holds up.
I’ve let him run every time since in hope of catching back over C&D, and regretted that somewhat when he obliged at Lingfield, but a 1lb ease by the handicapper I think cut him too much slack for a small field.
Today’s big field should really suit him, guaranteed to get a good gallop and that should see him come home strong. Obviously, he needs a bit of luck in-running, but that’s why I’ve only chanced him for a minimum bet.
Result: Unplaced – 12/12 btn 24L -1pt
Took keen hold, midfield, hampered after 1f, weakened over 1f out (jockey said gelding ran too free) (SP 8/1)
Other Notes
I was close to having a play in the Bumper at Plumpton (15:30), but the odds about them just didn’t stack up either way.
Anthony Honeyball is one I always keep tabs on in Bumpers, on account of an across the boards strike rate of 20% across some 450 runners, and he runs debutant Western Charm (6/1).
The yards strike rate holds up in Mares’ Bumpers (20%), increases to 25% for those first time out (FTO) and increases to 42% when applied to Plumpton, with 11 wins from 26 (4 from 9 FTO).
This looks a warm enough race, though. I really liked the debut run of Jamie Snowden’s Flying Pimpernel (11/1) and that form looks healthy, and the trainer has mentioned how he thinks she wants give in the ground, which she’ll get today.
The race doesn’t lack in depth, either. Skittish goes for Hughie Morrison and has an interesting piece of form, and Neil Mulholland runs the 2/1 fav, who too looks worthy of the price.
I wanted a wee bit more juice in the price about both Western Charm or Flying Pimpernel. If I’d gotten either I’d have probably had a little play, but I had to make it a watching brief only. This should be a race which gives some good pointers going forward, though.
All the best today.
