The one selection at a big price yesterday paid off, with Pickersgill returning place money at 33/1. Going after the Place Boost paid off, with the filly finishing precisely there on her first run for Iain Jardine.
Considering the race wasn’t particularly run to suit with them going plenty slow enough, she done particularly well and she can be marked up some for that. Lowly rated but not without ability to be picking up races in low grade handicaps. I’ll keep tabs on her for now.
Today’s instant standout which punched me on the nose was seeing John McConnell sending two over from Ireland to Wolverhampton. These have been a cash cow over the last ten years or so, but there is no track he appears to target more so than Wolverhampton’s atrificial.
9111221041649111421 = 19/9 (47% Win)
Hollie Doyle takes the ride on both, who has ridden three of those nineteen runners and won all of them, so they appear to be going with firm intentions on both. The first up is very easy to make a case for, whilst the latter is far harder, but the price reflects that and I’ve played the latter for a minimum win bet, as they tend to either oblige or nowhere.
DJ Pete @ 100/1 | ½pt EW
Chepstow 14:37
Chepstow 14:37T: Sarah-Jayne Davies
J: James Best
Result: unplaced – 4/5 -1pt
Raced in third, not fluent 5th, not fluent 6th, weakened before 4 out (SP 125/1)
Slowdownbarney @ 11/4 | 2pt Win
Wolverhampton 18:30
Wolverhampton 18:30T: John C McConnell
J: Hollie Doyle
Result: unplaced – 5/7 -2pt
Pushed along soon after start, prominent, outpaced and pushed along over 3f out, ridden and pressed leader over 1f out, no extra inside final 110yds (SP 11/4)
Phils Dream @ 12/1 | 1pt Win
Wolverhampton 20:00
T: John C McConnell
J: Hollie Doyle
Result: Placed – 2/8 -1pt
Pulled hard, midfield, switched right and headway over 1f out, soon ridden, led narrowly inside final 110yds, headed towards finish (SP 12/1)
Slowdownbarney is the easy case to make, and to be fair I’m surprised he is as big a price as he is. He hacked up over today’s course and distance last April, winning by 4¾ lengths off of a mark of 59, and would’ve followed that up two weeks later to defy a 7lb rise (66), but for getting trouble in-running. Going today off of just 61, he looks supremely well handicapped.
Drawn in stall 1, I’d expect him to be ridden prominently and wait for a gap down the straight, and would be very surprised if anything can stick it up to him if he puts near his best foot forward.
The latter runner, Phils Dream, hasn’t been competitive in any of his seven races since running ½ Length 2nd of 13 at Dundalk in April 2024, but he has tumbled down the weights for that fact. He comes into this 4lb out of the handicap, which says something about how far his mark has fallen, but this is a basement race and he carries a clear bottom-weight for that.
He may well just be a travel companion for the earlier runner, but they have thrown stranger runners out who have gone well, so I’ll chance this one for a minimum bet.
Last up is DJ Pete, who could be a shocker of a shout, one way or the other. I struggle to trust with the going description at Chepstow, especially so on days like this where the weather is really playing up. You never know what you’re getting there – You can have Heavy in the description and times like it’s Good-to-Soft.
But, if it really looks like a bog, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outrun massive odds of 100/1 in this Novice Chase. A Malinas gelding, who’s progeny love the mud, and they’ve somehow only ever ran him in the bog once, where he ran 2nd of 11 in a modest Handicap, behind one who won two of their next three runs. It’s a wild swing, but I’ve talked myself into another minimal bet for a ½ point each-way.
Other notes…
I had Oh So Perfect marked down as a bet next time out after she showed marked improvement on her first outing for Mick Appleby. She had shown nothing for Basher Watts’ syndicate when with Charlie Fellowes, but she looked likely to win races off of her lowly mark with what she produced that day.
Dropped a further 1lb in the weights to a lowly 48, they will certainly find a race for her and this may well be it, but I couldn’t get involved at the 2/1 about her chances. She is drawn well to repeat the positive tactics they went with last time out and she may take some pegging back on this sharp track, but it’s a slim enough price for one who has this run to prove it.
Best of luck with your punting today,
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias
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