A few days of letting them run, as cards just looked horrendously tricky and the weather leading to no end of guessable ground. Nicky Henderson even quite rightly taking to media to justify not running horses, tells you how bad it has been. On the All Weather it has been really low grade stuff, which is just proving too unpredictable this time of year.
Today is decent, with plenty I’ve marked for a watching brief and one I really quite fancy. The Kempton card in particular looks a cracking card, though more from a spectator point of view, rather than betting talk. There will for sure be some major pointers for the coming months on this card though, with some really competitive races.
Something @ 7/1
Something @ 7/12pt Win | Kempton 15:45
T: Stuart Williams
J: Harry Vigors
The one and only bet, for now at least, goes in the 1m3f Class 5 Handicap at Kempton, where I really fancy Stuart Williams’ runner Something, under the very worthwhile 7lb claim of Harry Vigors.
This Golden Horn gelding has won three of his nineteen starts, but is two from ten on the All Weather. All three wins have come over 1m4f, so stamina is not in the question here, despite the racecards questioning whether he will stay.
The only real question around him is how he will handle the track, with this being his first venture to Kempton. Golden Horn progeny handle Kempton perfectly fine and he is out of a Shamardal mare, which is a good pointer towards Kempton’s AW surface as they operate here over middle distances (1m2f-1m6f) at a strike of 17% from some 120-odd runners – Solid.
More interestingly, Something followed a very similar path last year when returning from a break, which suggests we could see vast improvement on his last run;
In May last year he reappeared on the back of a 130-day break off a mark of 77, running 6th of 11 and beaten 12¾ lengths. He came back out three weeks later off of 75 and ran 1st of 10 by 2¼ lengths.
This time round, he made his reappearance run after a 147-day break off of 76, running 5th of 6 and beaten 6½ lengths. He goes today off a mark of 74, plus the 7lb claim to be taken off.
This is his third run for Stuart Williams, an extremely shrewd hand with his horses, especially so on the All Weather, and having aquired him from Jedd O’Keefe, I’d be amazed if Williams can’t fetch him well beyond the level O’Keefe had him running at.
Having won off of 70 on the AW and running close 2nds twice off of 76 and 77, his current mark plus the claim has to mark him as an extremely well-handicapped horse.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: How to Read a Racecard · Non-Runner Rules · Race Class Levels
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