Daily Dial #75 – A Likely Improver at Newbury

Like Provision at Southwell on Wednesday, this is a pedigree play — but an easier one to argue. Provision ran a decent race at 40/1 and I’m hopeful of another solid run for our money today.

Joulany was an 800,000gns Sea The Stars yearling, out of the AEI 8.68 mare Kitcara, and a full brother to Al Aasy — a horse who peaked at RPR 122 and won multiple Group races. Every one of Kitcara’s previous foals has won over a trip beyond a mile, which makes Joulany’s introduction at 7f and 1m look like a test of speed rather than a statement of his optimum. The progeny’s record between 1m2f and 1m4f tells the real story: 13 wins from 42 runs (31%) and a 62% place strike, much of that at a serious level. On his first try at 1m2f today, he should step forward.

His debut came at Kempton last November over an almost certainly inadequate 7f. He was beaten half a length into second of nine, with the winner, third and fifth all winning next time out. The field was strung out — 7¾ lengths covered first to fifth — which marks it as solid form. At York over a mile on his return, he was travelling as well as any of the front three when Valenday jinked right and cut across his run, costing him a place at the very least. The winner, Morshdi, went on to win the Listed Feilden at Newmarket last week. The runner-up, Arabian Desert, was second in the Group 3 Horris Hill here at Newbury in October. That is strong form, and he was denied a fair crack at it.

The table below is the other half of the case. Kitcara has not produced a two-year-old winner from six runners. Her foals don’t arrive fully formed — they improve markedly from two to three, and some keep improving beyond that. Joulany is a three-year-old stepping up in trip off two runs that flagged ability. That’s the shape of the bet.

Best of luck with your punting today,