Apologies for a quiet week. There have only been a few of a watching interest anyway, so no bets wagered. It has been a week of big change for me down here and I needed a few days to settle in. That, and being a pig sick and disgraced Southampton fan, with my kids to console. Deary me… What a mess. Anyway, one today who leaps out as one on a going day.
Dr Richard Newland has had some 4,500 runners over the years, from which only twelve have run at Musselburgh – all in the National Hunt sphere, who have recorded figures reading 3112PF222262. Today he sends his first flat runner to the course, and he has booked none other than Paul Mulrennan, the second-most winning jockey at the track. Whilst he has had only two winners from the twelve, with a further seven hitting the frame, it’s safe to say every one of them appears to have been sent with intentions of winning, and just come up short.
In touch with leaders, prominent under 3f out, led narrowly under 2f out, headed 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, no match for winner
I’ve looked twice at Diamondonthehill on a few occasions since around Christmas time, as he has appeared well enough handicapped and been running consistently well without winning. Ultimately he hasn’t added to his record of just the one win from now nineteen runs on the All-Weather, but now back on the flat where he is 5/40 and 4lbs below his last winning turf mark, I fancy him to be competitive.
It’s the combination of the track and the jockey booking which really make him a bet today though. Newland’s Musselburgh figures and the booking of Mulrennan for their first flat runner at the course signal a big run intended, and for a horse who so consistently runs into the frame, he looks as good an each-way bet as any. 1pt Each-Way at 10/1 (General, 3 places at 1/5).
Only concern is the ground going against him, but I don’t think they’ll run if it comes to that.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Handicap Races · Best Odds Guaranteed · Betting Odds
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