I didn’t get a chance to look at yesterday’s cards before the off, so a day that escaped me. Epsom made for a good watch, though — Call Margot an obvious eyecatcher in the opener. As for The Oaks… Thundering On didn’t live up to her name, as it was more a case of cantering on. Blimey… What a performance.
Just the one chanced for us there today. These meetings rarely shape the make-up of our betting targets, given the ultra-competitive fields and markets studied to within an inch of their lives. But there’s one I just couldn’t overlook — wildly priced when she looks likely to have the beating of the 13/2 second-favourite. A couple of decent punts to be had at Doncaster too.
Slowly into stride, in rear, headway in centre of group over 1f out, kept on final 110yds
Towards rear throughout
Held up in rear, going easily but waiting for room 2f out, soon switched right, hung left but ran on inside final furlong, went third final stride
STORMY IMPACT goes in the Dash, and she won the 3yo Dash here last year — beating today’s 13/2 second-favourite, Lexington Blitz, in the process, where she was receiving 2lbs from the gelding. That form was upheld in the Palace of Holyrood at Royal Ascot, where the penalty had the filly giving Lexington Blitz 5lbs; they ran 10th (beaten 5½l) and 12th (beaten 6l) respectively. They now meet for the first time since, with the filly receiving 5lbs from Lexington Blitz — so she should have a very good chance of upholding that form, at nearly double his price. With course form in the book, a York run under her belt and a positive high draw (high draws win some 40% of these sprints here), she should go very well. 1pt Each-Way at 11/1 (Bet365, paying 5 places).
BRAVE NEW WORLD is a bet on the Ed Walker second-time-out angle — the very one I was kicking myself over on Thursday, when The Ginger Kid scooted up at 20/1. This son of Siyouni is a full brother to two maiden winners: Walk In Marrakesh, a Listed winner for Mark Johnston in 2019, and Procrastinate, who won a 15-runner Curragh maiden in 2024. 1pt Each-Way at 28/1 (William Hill, paying 3 places).
Last up, AKKADIAN THUNDER will need the ground to ease a touch, but with rain forecast all day there’s a good chance he runs. He has some solid course form — especially over 7f, and even more so at this grade, reading 13126 at Class 3 level, with the 6 coming on rattling ground. He has run some big races in a higher tier off higher marks here too, over his less-preferred 6f trip. David Nolan rides, and reads 132 on him at the track. The low draw is a marginal disadvantage, but not one that would swing me out of a bet. 2pt Win at 6/1 (Bet365).
Others to note before I sign off. BAYSIDE VIEW (17/2, 13:55 Doncaster) — a Bayside Boy newcomer for Michael Bell who will likely improve significantly for the debut, so a watching brief for next time. KINGS HAND (17/2, 17:35 Lingfield) — has shown a good level of form for Joseph Parr, a trainer with a very minor strike rate (1/45 on the Flat in the last 12 months), and ran a great race up against Hengest under a penalty last time. If Hengest runs well up in grade at Epsom in the 17:20, I’d fancy Kings Hand to pop in. RESEMBLANCE (5/2, 17:47 Chepstow) — ran into a place for us at 25/1 last time and should have a big chance here, but a short enough price against a few who could be anything. BIG WIN (15/8, 21:00 Chepstow) — a low-grade handicapper for James Owen, who doesn’t send them to Chepstow for the scenery (38% strike rate at the course), and with Luke Morris booked it suggests they want the job done — the pair operate at around a 20% strike rate together.
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Visit the Shop →What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Draw Bias · Going Descriptions · National Hunt Racing
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