Five cards to have a look over… Course specialist Brighton, front-runners’ Catterick, front-runner loving Windsor, nimble Musselburgh and prominently advantaged Ballinrobe. The four UK cards didn’t have anything overly jumping out at me, despite a few running who have been on the radar, but there was one runner for a prolific yard over at Ballinrobe in Ireland who I couldn’t ignore.
Prior to that, a quick recap of yesterday’s continuing frustrations. The Jack Channon filly Sugar Sugar ran a mighty race having drifted to an SP of 50/1, despite showing significant greenness throughout. She pulled and hung from start to finish but motored home late, only to be beaten out of a placed finish by half a length. When she puts it all together she will be a very tough nut to crack, though I wouldn’t want to be betting her at a short price — which she is likely to be on yesterday’s evidence — until we see her quirks ironed out.
Minutes later at Pontefract we saw Reigning Profit run a solid race at a track he clearly loves, but in a race where there wasn’t quite enough early pace on, he could only manage 4th beaten just 1¼ lengths. He’ll be going in very soon, likely back there, and ranks worth following despite disappointing on the day. Latterly we saw Amber Honey tailed off back at Brighton, who lost her action coming down the hill according to Paddy Bradley. A shame we didn’t get to find out how she would have fared.
Led, headed and raced in second after 1f, raced in third after 3f, going easily when short of room 2f out, soon switched left, ridden and challenging inside final furlong, ran on well to lead towards finish
Onto today and it was a fairly easy pick. Paddy Twomey — an excellent trainer in every regard — doesn’t throw many at Ballinrobe, but ranks supreme when he does, and does so here in a fillies’ race his yard do markedly well in.
He sends DERESSA to Ballinrobe, a track Twomey reads 1115111121 for 8 wins and a place from ten. A Zarak filly — a sire whose progeny have been excellent over their first few years — she looked a very capable one under Dermot Weld, running to a good level in novice company before earning a trio of starts in pattern company, where she was outclassed. She drops now into a handicap off a mark of 91, but the key detail is the company she steps into. On her stable debut for Twomey she was pitched straight into a 20-runner Premier Handicap worth €30,000 off a 0-95 ceiling — a deep race by any measure. Today she goes for an 8-runner 0-90 Handicap worth €13,000, a significantly easier task. Zarak progeny have gone best at sharp and tight tracks, so she should relish Ballinrobe, and Twomey’s record of improving horses through their first few runs for him is more than enough to put one below-par effort behind her.
Others to note: Rain Cap (12/1, Catterick 17:10), Bollengo Boy (10/1, Windsor 18:15) and Nogos Dream (6/1, Windsor 19:17).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialHow do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Pace Bias · Place Terms · Each-Way Betting
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