I tend to get a good pointer as to how appealing a day’s racing is from two things – the number of runners from the tracker and the standard of alerts from my angle qualifiers. Both are dismally lacking today, with none in the tracker and only a handful of alerts, none of which make any appeal, so I was expecting a look through today’s cards to draw a blank. To my pleasant surprise, I think we’ve got a knocking good bet in the Fillies’ & Mares’ Listed race at Pontefract – she’s got an awful lot in her favour.
Midfield, weakened 2f out
A solid mare who comes back for another tilt at the race she ran runner-up in last year. CHESHIRE DANCER went into this last term on the back of a big run in the Kensington Palace at Royal Ascot, where she ran a 1¼-length 3rd of 23 at 20/1. She ran off 86, looking up against it on ratings, meeting rivals rated far superior from level weights, but she ran a cracker to finish behind the 105-rated favourite, Royal Dress. She then went for a Fillies’ & Mares’ Group 3 back at Ascot, where she confirmed her form to win by a neck from Ed Walker’s Listed winner American Gal, with Royal Dress well seen off in 6th. She then went over the pond for a tilt at the $1,260,000 Ladies Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs, running a huge race under Frankie Dettori for 4th, and would’ve gone far closer had she not got closed up on the rail in the closing stages.
She was tried up in trip on her first two starts this term, to no avail, but showed a marked return to form last time out back in this year’s renewal of the Kensington Palace, beaten 4l in 8th in a messy nearside group. This is a glaringly obvious target for her, and I’m staggered she’s being so vastly overlooked in the betting – I’d have her at half the price at the least. David Probert’s booked – long-time readers may remember I don’t hold him in the highest regard, but he’s got a solid record for Hugo Palmer. He rarely rides at Pontefract, and goes there for this as his sole ride of the day. I think she’ll take a lot of beating, in a race that doesn’t look as competitive as last year’s. 6/1 @ Betfred and Ladbrokes
A few others I looked at and left alone: American State (17/2, Wolverhampton 18:10), First Encounter (7/2, Wolverhampton 18:40) and Serenity Bay (11/2, Brighton 18:50).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhat happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
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