A break had, with the last week spent as a watching brief. The first day of taking a step back very nearly had my head spinning, as Jack Channon saddled a 200/1 2yo runner in a weak Maiden, who ran 2nd. I started today’s post in anticipation of another of those at a big price, but now a non-runner (Issey’s Gift at Newmarket). We’ll play the one, who was in from the tracker on the last post on the back of a 200-odd day break.
Prominent, weakened over 1f out
The jockey booking doesn’t do much to inspire on the stats front, but to be fair to her, when she is given one with a chance they tend to finish thereabouts. I put KISS DON’T TELL in the tracker on account of what I think is a lenient opening mark. And now down 1lb already and a 5lb claimer on board, I couldn’t knowingly dodge her today and wouldn’t forgive myself if she did indeed run a big one. Bet365 paying 1/5 6 Places @ 33/1.
Bated Benevolence (2/1, Chester 15:15), Sale Shark (7/1, York 16:45) and Substance (28/1, Redcar 17:25).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Place Terms
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