A quiet week from me, with just too much going on, and something had to give. I had a very rare week off work and a long list of things to do. With a quick check over each day’s racing and nothing much overly appealing, I’ve let them run without a post. However, today there’s one I’ve had to take a chance on.
I was at Ascot on Saturday, where there were a few to take forward, which I’ll go through when I finally get round to the Redial, which I’m well aware I’m miles behind on.
Taken down early, midfield, weakened inside final furlong
Archie Watson is prolific in All Weather Sprint Novices, hitting 39 winners from 104 runners for a 37.5% strike and a place strike just shy of 60%. Restrict those to Wolverhampton and the strike rate increases to 16 from 38 (42%) and a seriously impressive 73.5% hitting the frame. Of the overall All Weather Sprint Novices, Luke Morris has ridden 20 of them, winning 10. By Sioux Nation, one of the leading sires at Wolverhampton, and out of a dam who has produced seven winners from her eight to have run, with today’s runner ROGUE DAKOTA being the only one yet to win.
She is bred for this, from a yard who target these and under one of the best riders here… Yet she is 20/1. On her last run the price is understandable, but it looked like a run where everything fell apart, even before going in the stalls. She then ducked right when the race began and never got into it. Looks a race to put a line through to me. On her debut prior to that she was beaten by a Michael Bell improver who went on to win cosily on handicap debut, and she put some eight lengths between herself and the third.
Midnight Moonshine (11/1, Perth 16:50).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeHow do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Going Descriptions · Non-Runner Rules · Place Terms
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