A day of low grade racing ahead, but there was a surprising amount which stood out, so I’ve gone somewhat mob-handed and that’s with leaving a couple who more than half tempted me to run.
Yesterday’s two returned nothing. The first up, Conquest Of Power at Kempton, had the writing on the wall soon after the post went up, when Mark Usher issued his daily thoughts on his blog (link here).
"He has run five fairly modest races and had his wind tweaked; so a fair number of imponderables to weigh up; hard to call and his run this afternoon will help inform us of where to go with him and the nick he is in when we comes to business end of the race."
He duly ran a fairly flat race, though he wasn’t exactly given a tough time of it. Frustratingly, Mark Usher gave a good nod to Token Gesture in the opener at Kempton, who duly obliged at 6/1. Not a yard who rattle the most winners, but Mark’s thoughts often make for an interesting read and he isn’t shy to nudge when he expects a big run.
Latterly for us went Whistle Stop Tour, who I think had the improving ground end his chances, though he wasn’t disgraced in 5th of 14. I think he looks far more at home on soft ground, so I’ll hang out for when he looks likely to get that. I insist he is winning a decent pot.
Onto today…
Four selections, which I’ve played level stakes across the board with the exception of playing two of them each-way, both of which are a good nudge under the odds I ordinarily play each-way at. That said, there is logic to it and they both look unbelievably good bets to play for at least a place.
Ring Of Gold 11/2 | 2pt Win
13:13 Newcastle
13:13 NewcastleT: Michael & David Easterby
J: Billy Garritty
Result: Placed – 2/10 -2pt
Towards rear on far side of group, headway over 1f out, pressed winner final 110yds, kept on (SP 9/2)
Lac De Constance 11/1 | 1pt EW
14:02 Leicester
14:02 LeicesterT: Dan Skelton
J: Tristan Durrell
Result: Unplaced – U/7 -2pt
In rear, not fluent and unseated 6th (SP 18/1)
Amazonian Dream 7/1 | 2pt Win
17:30 Southwell
17:30 SouthwellT: Rod Millman
J: Lewis Edmunds
Result: Placed – 3/10 -2pt
Towards rear, headway and went third inside final 110yds, never dangerous (SP 11/1)
Smokey Malone 10/1 | 1pt EW
19:00 Southwell
19:00 SouthwellT: Julia & Shelley Birkett
J: Dylan Hogan
Result: WON – 1/9 +12pt
Towards rear, headway and in touch with leaders over 4f out, prominent over 1f out, led and kept on inside final furlong (SP 17/2)
First up goes Ring Of Gold in a 7f Classified Stakes, in what is a dismal level of contest and one I’m supremely confident will prove to be well above these. He has ran in sixteen AW 7f races, winning five and placing in a further six of those and this race is almost certainly the easiest of any of those he has contested. He should win, and should do so easily.
Then up is 10-year-old Lac De Constance looking to roll back the years for Dan Skelton. He hasn’t won since 2022, but he has been very lightly raced in that time, with just three runs in the last two or so years. Due to the limited runs, he has been eased considerably in the handicap, and now returns over fences 18lbs lower than he was contesting off of in 2023. Interestingly, Dan Skelton has recorded a record reading 221311 with horses aged 10+ in Leicester Chase Handicaps, with winners at 3/1, 5/1 and 8/1.
Then goes Amazonian Dream, who was the most obvious bet of the day at the weights. A massive eyecatcher when last seen on New Years Day, when running very well under very little ask and given a mountain to climb. He is 14lbs below the mark he ran a 2½ lengths third of nine in a Class 3 Handicap, and he goes in a moderate Class 4 today, under the same regular rider.
Last up is Smokey Malone, who in an almost identical fashion to Ring Of Gold, has ran fifteen times at Southwell, winning four times and finishing in the frame in a further seven. He won off of this mark (50) this time last year and has twice won here off of 60, so he should be going mighty close at the very least.
Other notes…
Henry de Bromhead runs Sense Of Occasion in the Maiden Hurdle at Down Royal (12:50) in the JP McManus silks. Henry has a remarkable record at Down Royal in these races, reading a beyond healthy record of 19 wins from 56 for a 33% strike rate. 10/1 says the betting and there are far worse EW bets if you fancy another dabble.
A stable who can’t seem to throw out a winner for toffee, but Venetia Williams runs Bresiliant at Leicester (13:32) in a Novices Hurdle. By Blue Bresil, whose progeny have won eight times from thirty runners at Leicester for a 30% strike, and they’re five from eleven over this trip of 2m4f. 50/1 says the betting.
In the last at Newcastle I was mighty close to playing Thunderstorm Katie (16:13, 16/1). Her win over this C&D last October puts her in front of both Digital (5/1) and Bibendum (15/2) and she has a positive swing in the weights with both, which puts her even further ahead. The negative is her rider (Shay Farmer), who despite claiming a further 7lbs, I just can’t be having him.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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