Daily Dial #41 – Sun 15 Feb – Punchestown and Newcastle

Two bets today, one over hurdles in Ireland and one on the All-Weather at Newcastle, both win bets at healthy enough prices. One being a breeding line we’ve followed who steps up in grade and looks overlooked in the betting, with the other one who has been running well but gets a marked upgrade in the saddle today.

A mixed bag from yesterday’s two, with Heathcliff justifying that 7f form to win going away at Lingfield, but Pickersgill ran a very disappointing race at Newcastle.

I’d suggest Heathcliff has ran to nothing more than his bare form, with the key just being easier company as I don’t think that race was amounting to anywhere near the level he had been in recently.

Stede Bonnet @ 8/1

2pt Win | Punchestown 15:00

T: Gordon Elliott | J: Danny Gilligan

Result: unplaced – 3/4 -2pts | Raced in last, weakened before last, went third inside final 110yds (SP 11/2)

La Rochette @ 10/1

2pt Win | Newcastle 17:12

T: Tracy Waggott | J: Barry McHugh

Result: unplaced – 5/9 -2pts | Prominent, weakened inside final furlong (SP 9/1)

First of today’s two is one who got a brief mention back in December when we were looking into Shannon Royale, as I am very keen on following Shannon Rose offspring. She has a remarkable record at producing winners, who win on all types of ground, and I think this one in Stede Bonnet could go on to be the pick of the bunch, thus far at least.

He has looked a real improver this term, running a soid 2nd behind Upon Tweed at Ayr at the beginning of December, and has since ran out a more than comfortable winner in both starts since then.

Ground really doesn’t appear to bother him, he has a lovely attitude and despite having a bit to find on ratings, I think he can prove both them and the betting wrong and make a massive fist of this.

Latterly is one from the Newcastle All-Weather Restricted Riders card, which is restricted to riders who have ridden 30 or less winners in the calendar year. As such, there are many an inexperienced rider across the card, so I fancied looking for any notable jockey upgrades with riders who excel at Newcastle.

The standout is Barry McHugh, who has ridden 12 of 17 winners in the last twelve months at Newcastle, who has six rides across the card and it is easy enough to give a good squeak to most of them.

However, the one I most fancied at the prices was La Rochette, who has tumbled down the weights this year but has shown signs of returning to form over this course and distance on her last two starts.

She came to the U.K. from France and first ran on these shores on the turf in March last year off a mark of 86, but a summer of poor runs saw her rating fall dramatically, to the point she first ran on the all-weather over here in December off of 62. That first run was poor (over 6f) but both since have been positive and yet her mark has still been further eased to 57.

All of her all-weather runs in the U.K. have come under vastly lesser riders, and the last two runs looked like she was screaming out for someone to be strong in a finish to take over, so this change in the saddle looks significant given the competition.

The form level she has been running to is more than adequate for this grade and puts her bang in the mix for this, even getting a bit of a swing in the weights with those she has been finishing around, taking the jockeys claims out of the equation.

There is definitely ability in this mare and it wouldn’t surprise me if she rattled a few wins in a row at some point, so low is her mark and how unexposed she is on the all-weather, as this will be just her seventh career run on the all-weather all in.

Best of luck with your punting today,

Common questions

What does "each-way" mean?

An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.

The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.

How do I follow this bet?

Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.

If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.

What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?

Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.

Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.

Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?

Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.

If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.

Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.

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