A really moody day of racecards to sift through, with two of the worst betting tracks on the Flat with Newcastle and Leicester. Newcastle I’ve spoken plenty about how tough it can be to bet there, but Leicester is equally tough, if not more so. So, it’s a day of playing safe, with one standout bet.
Leicester is a really funny track and you can never really understand why it catches many out until you’ve stood at the finish and looked back down the straight. It has many long, uneven undulations, which many horses don’t handle, and even if they do handle the track, if they are the slightest bit keen or fresh, or the jockey gets going on them too soon, their race is over. Many a race collapse in the approach to the finish and it can make for some bewildering results. It’s a track best used as a watching brief, for me.
Midfield, some headway when not clear run 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
The bet… Mercurius Power runs off an OR of 58 today in a Class 6 0-60. Below reads his record over C&D – Pay particular attention to the ORs he ran these from. He doesn’t win many, but he is weighted to give him the best chance and his draw in stall 9 towards the stands rail puts him on the right side of it.
| Date | Class | Wght | OR | Result | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-2 t p | 60 | 3rd of 12, btn ¾l | Ethan Tindall (7) |
| 19 Dec 2025 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-10 t p | 62 | 7th of 9, btn 5½ | George Wood |
| 17 Oct 2025 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-5 t p | 61 | 2nd of 7, btn 3l | George Wood |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-8 t p | 62 | 3rd of 8, btn 2¼l | George Wood |
| 28 Dec 2024 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-7 t p | 65 | 11th of 11, btn 8¼l | Ben Sanderson (3) |
| 7 Nov 2024 | Cl5 Hcap | 9-8 t p | 64 | 2nd of 10, btn 2l | Lewis Edmunds |
| 1 Mar 2024 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-6 t p | 65 | 3rd of 12, btn 2½l | Ben Sanderson (3) |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Cl5 Hcap | 9-4 t p | 65 | 3rd of 12, btn 5¼l | Lewis Edmunds |
| 22 Jan 2024 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-6 t p | 62 | 2nd of 11, btn hd | Ben Sanderson (3) |
| 8 Dec 2023 | Cl6 Hcap | 9-7 t p | 57 | Won/12, btn 1½l | Lewis Edmunds |
| 20 Oct 2023 | Cl6 AppHcap | 9-4 t p | 60 | 5/11 (9), btn 2¾l | Ben Sanderson |
Others to NoteTiverton-based Nigel Hawke sends Highbury Hill on the very long journey from Devon to Northumberland for another spin around Hexham (5/1, 16:30). She ran well there in a Maiden Hurdle on her reappearance run back in October and since picked up a win in a Novices Handicap at Chepstow. She looks well treated from her mark of 100, with form lines from both runs that hold up, and she gets a handy 7lb claimer on board. It doesn’t look the most competitive 0-100 Class 5 Hcap Hurdle, but the journey alone suggests they go fancying chances. She was the yard’s first runner at the track back in October and they haven’t been back since.
Elsewhere at Hexham, take on the Nicky Richards trio at your peril. His last eight runners have all won very easily, and he sends three strong-looking chances here today, at a track he notoriously does well at. The first of them, Young Getaway (7/2, 14:30), was very nearly a bet based on Richards’ uptick with chasers and this one was unfortunate when last seen this time last year on his last start over hurdles, where he likely would’ve won back-to-back races. He goes chasing off the same mark he ran off there, which looks very lenient. He also runs Gintime (15/8, 15:00) and Jamesieconn (13/8, 15:30). I don’t advise multiples as a rule — the margins compound against you. But when a yard is 8 from 8 at a track and sends three runners that all look short enough in the betting, the treble at least deserves a line in the notebook.
Strike Red (5/1, 19:00 Newcastle) was very close to being a bet, who was running in Class 2 All-Weather handicaps this time last year off marks between 96-99, yet goes today off just 86. Like Mercurius Power, he is drawn on the right side of the track and really should be bang competitive off this mark. I scratched him as a bet — his form has been too patchy to trust against Evening Saigon, Albasheer, and Paddy’s Day in a race that looks competitive from top to bottom.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Handicap Races · Best Odds Guaranteed · Betting Odds
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