Two selections yesterday and both disappointed. Port Louis didn’t overly surprise me — his All-Weather form was poor and I’ll wait for him to run back on the turf before entertaining him again — but I hadn’t expected Silver Gunn to blow up like he did.
He ticked every box bar a good recent run, and the way he dropped out of it yesterday would worry connections, I’d imagine. He’d been given every chance by the handicapper and, although he had to wait for a gap, when one came he came through looking like he had every chance, found nothing, and faded alarmingly. I always say there’s as much to take from the losers as the winners, often more so, but yesterday wasn’t one of those days and they’re the worst of all. Thankfully Silver Gunn was the only full bet — Port Louis went with quite rightly reduced stakes.
Today’s horse racing tips come from a flurry of racing with a good bit to pick through, albeit all relatively low-grade stuff. The Maidens and Novices in particular look weak and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some hefty prices going in, but good luck in finding them. Beverley hosts three 5f sprints — a Novice, an oddly compiled Seller, and a Handicap — and those dashes are prime targets for a low-draw springer, an angle I put a good focus on. Even still, I kept coming round in circles.
Dwelt start, took keen hold, towards rear, headway 2f out, soon not clear run, switched left inside final furlong, went third and kept on inside final 110yds
Held up in rear and ran green, no impression (jockey said colt ran green)
I settled on two selections — one at Bath who looks to have been treated extremely generously by the handicapper, and a rare one at Killarney with a striking jockey booking for a trainer/jockey combo that’s been extremely fruitful. The Killarney runner has since been made a non-runner.
The one at Bath is THAPA VC, who spent most of his career rated competitively in the mid to high 70s but slipped into the high 60s coming into 2025. He quickly capitalised, winning here at Bath off 67 in May. He was nudged up just 2lbs for that and in five subsequent flat runs remained fairly competitive, before the handicapper generously dropped his mark to 65. Off that mark he capitalised again, winning at Bath in September, and again was raised just 2lbs.
He spent the winter on the all-weather, where he routinely runs — fairly competitive without winning — and came back to the turf off a handsome looking mark of 62. His re-appearance was over an extended trip, his first run at 1m2f, and he failed to see it out, though he was bang there until the final furlong. The handicapper has again seen sense and eased him further, leaving him on a very generous mark of just 60.
He now returns to his preferred 1m trip and, for the first time in his career, drops into a 0-60 Class 6. The only previous time he’d run in a Class 6 on the turf was that latter win at Bath, which was a 0-65. Off this lowly mark, this looks a potential penalty kick — one he should make relatively light work of. He takes on an exposed field, none of whom look overly well treated. It’s only Coakley’s runner My Ambition I fear here, and he’s the only thing holding me back from going a Max Bet about Thapa Vc.
TURRET is a well-bred newcomer for Andrew Balding who fetched €580,000 as a yearling. His dam is a half-sister to Hydrangea (2017 Matron Stakes and Champions Fillies & Mares winner), to The United States (a multiple Group winner in the U.S. earning over £1.1m), and to 2019 1,000 Guineas and Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Hermosa. Turret has twice been a non-runner ahead of his debut, which looks like they’re being overly selective about where they first try his hand. At an each-way price — which I’m surprised to see about him on his Lingfield bow — I’ll risk a minimal interest. It just looks like one being saved for a big run on debut.
The latter bet, now a non-runner, was HOT TO FOXTROT for John Feane and Ronan Whelan — a combination worth following. Their last ten together read 1415114319, with a 4th of 14, a 5th of 20 and a 3rd of 16 in there too.
The +97pts profit for the Feane/Whelan combo is somewhat skewed by an 80/1 winner they had at Leopardstown in 2021, but the pair have a strike rate of 9/36 (25%) with a further nine in the frame (50%), and they’ve only ever paired up for one runner on any given day. That’s a serious strike rate and many have been way over the odds. The A/E is obviously skewed by the 80/1 winner too, but at 1.76 it would still read positive regardless.
Hot To Foxtrot is still relatively unexposed, has hinted at ability, is lowly rated, and has looked like wanting a bit further to run at with how he’s been finishing his races, so the extra furlong today looked likely to suit. On the basis of that booking alone he goes in the tracker — one to keep an eye out for next time, as I think this is one being lined up.
Best of luck to all getting involved. It’s my birthday today (hence a bit of a lashed-together post) so fingers crossed for a winner. Be Lucky!
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
New to this? Read up on: Going Descriptions · Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias
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