One bet today, and we go back in on a familiar one after he delivered for us at 25/1 last time. He’s been nudged up in the weights, but that was a strong race with depth to it, and the form suggests he’s still ahead of his mark and looks worth siding with again.
American State @ 13/2
American State @ 13/21pt Win | Wolverhampton 18:00
T: Iain Jardine | J: Lewis Edmunds
We backed American State back in February on just his second start for Ivan Furtado, on account of how well handicapped he looked based on his early form under Patrick Owens. Still remaining considerably unexposed, the 2lb rise from the handicapper looks lenient based on the form to come out of his race last month.
The 2nd and 3rd that day have both come out and won their next races, and the 3rd ran runner-up ran 2nd to Profit Street, who has since won again and was a very well handicapped one of The Horse Watchers battalion.
The way in which American State won LTO suggested to me it was far more comfortable than it looked, and the narrow margin to the closing Mr Nugget was more on account of not doing a great deal in front once he took the lead. Stevie Donohue looked well in control and always looked the likely winner.
Back over the C&D in the exact same 0-70 grade, this looks a cracking opportunity.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules · Each-Way Betting
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