Travelling back home the length of the country again today, so no blog post. Just two very minor plays today, both following the recent cash-cow of ex-Irish handicappers falling into the UK sphere.
Both are on or below marks they won handicaps off of in Ireland, so they are absoluteley weighted to win. It’s just a question of whether handlers and conditions meet. Both at wild prices, I’m more than willing to chance a minimum bet on both with a place for either covering bets for the day.
I Am Spiderman 50/1 | ½pt EW
14:50 Taunton
T: Debra Hamer
J: Ross Pritchard ³
Result: unplaced – 6/9 -1pt
In touch with leaders, prominent after 3 out, weakened from 2 out (SP 22/1)
Rauzan 22/1 | ½pt EW
15:40 Haydock
T: Lizzie Quinlan
J: Sean Quinlan
Result: unplaced – 8/10 -1pt
Never better than midfield (SP 22/1)
I’ll review Sunday and Monday in tomorrow’s post. For now, I’ve the kids and the dog to get readied up for a 350 mile drive.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Each-Way Betting
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