A rather more interesting day of racing to pick apart, and I’ve come out of it on the brave side with three selections. No none too solid, so only 3 x minimum bets, but solid interest all the same.
They are proving rather tough pickings of late, so keeping stakes steady isn’t a bad thing until feet are found somewhat. This was always going to take time to get into full flight, wasn’t it?
Bad signs aplenty with the fancied selection yesterday, Joyau Allen, who bled from the nose for a second time, which is a trait which means a hard and fast line put through them for me. It was her second attempt with wind surgery in a very lightly raced career, so it doesn’t bode well.
As for the other bet, Pallas Lord, I even mentioned in the post I’d hope he didn’t get into a cut throat race up front with Marcello Si, but unfortunately that was exactly what he did. That saw the end of both their chances and set it up for closers from the rear.
The latter will find a race fall his way, but he likely needs a race with zero pace about it, in order to dicate matters completely. That might be a tough one to find.
Today’s chances…
Day’s like this offer ample betting opportunity, but little in terms of reliability, so I’m sticking with minimum bets across the board on all three I fancied to be prices worthy of playing.
The first up is a bit of a wild swing, and whilst there is logic behind taking such a price, there’s a small chance you’ll look mighty clever but an equally large chance you’ll look silly. At 66/1 you take them chances for a limited stake.
T’other bet over lunchtime is a more interesting one and a bit of a different profile of bet to what I’d ordinarily play, but it leapt out as a bit of an oddity and when I looked at the pedigree about him, it ticked enough boxes.
To round things off tonight, we chance one runner on a very tricky Kempton card. It’s probably the worst race of the card, but it really doesn’t look like it will take much winning. As such, I was astounded to see such a big price the only one who is as proven as he is.
Ample Warning 66/1 | 0.5pt E/W
12:13 Ludlow
T: Alistair Ralph
J: Johnny Burke
A trainer who is often overlooked in the betting yet consistently sees his horses outrun their odds, specifically his hurdlers. I pay specific attention when a specific handful of jockeys are riding for them here, one of which is Johnny Burke, who goes today.
Ralph and Burke have rattled 14 of 30 runners here into the frame, 7 of which have won. Narrow that down to Novice Hurdlers and they read 3 wins and 1 place from just 6. Serious impressive numbers for a small yard.
“She’s had just one run, last season in a mares’ bumper at Cheltenham in April. She’s not run since due to niggly problems but hopefully it won’t be long until she’s out again. She’s a nice big, staying mare who has shown us a lot. We think a lot of her.” Alistair Ralph, 19-02-25
Result: Unplaced | 4/15 btn 14½L | -1pt
Midfield, headway from 5th, went third before 3 out, mistake 2 out, lost third but kept on run-in (SP 50/1)
Going To Graceland 9/1 | 1pt Win
12:35 Lingfield
T: Charlie Johnston
J: Callum Shepherd
This being the one not to match the usual profile I’d sniff around for a bet, but it stood out to me immediately that Charlie Johnston would bring one down to Lingfield for a debut run for a winnable Novice contest.
This looks a really good bit of placement should the Sioux Nation colt be readied to fire. Out of Swiss Spirit mare Grace Note, this colt is a half-brother to the useful Va Va Vroom, a Bated Breath filly who was only just headed on her debut by a seriously impressive sort.
This suggests Charlie Johnston’s colt her could well run his race on debut and very likely they have earmarked this as as good an opportunity as any to win on debut. The short priced favourite has found excuses to be beaten three times already and has only been given an opening mark of 74, which gives a nod to the depth we can expect here.
Worth noting thisis just Charlie Johnston’s fourth 2yo debutant at Lingfield, who have notched figures posting an eyecatching 1313, with the two winners coming in at 7/1 and 40/1 and one of the 3rd’s being a 33/1 chance. Small sample, but completely unfancied prices need paying attention to.
Result: Unplaced | 8/8 btn 28L | -1pt
Reared start and lost many lengths, tailed off (SP 11/2)
Take The Boat 20/1 | 0.5pt E/W
19:10 Kempton
T: Georgie Nicholls
J: Rob Hornby
A rank looking race but that’s a good half of the idea, as I just can’t see this taking much winning. A three-time course winner, once over C&D and only 1lb over her last winning mark.
There was a noticeable lack of depth to anything proven over the distance here, with the only such runners, Dashing Roger and Antiquity, looking desperately out of form. The former is absolsutely chucked in at the weights if he can rekindle old form, but that looks a serious question mark.
Take The Boat, under a decent rider around Kempton in Rob Hornby, has a high draw here, but that doesn’t put me off much over this trip at Kempton, as they have a fairly long run to the first bend which allows plentiful time to work their positions.
Likely to want to go relatively forward, she should be able to get a good enough position to mount a chance should she be good enough and we quite often see the winners coming down the outside on the home straight at Kempton. I think she is wildly overpriced here.
Result: Unplaced | 7/12 btn 5L | -1pt
Never better than midfield (SP 28/1)
Of the rest…
Mick Appleby and Rab Havlin are 3/3 together at Kempton and they team up again. Two of those three are with today’s runner, Coul Angel, who is an 11/2 chance in the 17:40. This race looked warm enough for me and not one I fancied looking for a bet in, though.
The 18:10 at Kempton looks a knocking good race, but again not much of a betting opportunity. Shader (5/4), Dubai Honour (9/4) and Ancient Wisdom (9/4) are three serious yardsticks in the five-runner race. A watching brief only for me, but does look a great race.
That’s about my lot today. Let’s hope for a patch of luck to put a poor week or two behind us.
Happy punting,
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · Draw Bias · Going Descriptions
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