The racing during this funny new year period is proving tough to call, so I’ve been treading somewhat lightly.
The Lingfield card looked horrible from a betting perspective, so I steered well clear. Kempton looked far more attractive and has a cracking race to watch at 18:30. I believe this is the race that is usually ran around March time, which Mount Athos (2/1) has won the last three times.
Witch Hunter is the one I’d fancy to stick it up to him. Richard Hannon has kept the latter far busier, but Witch Hunter had the better of Mount Athos on multiple occasions earlier in their careers, but went seperate ways since.
Witch Hunter has on four occasions ran placed effort in UK Listed and Group 3 AW contests since, whilst Mount Athos has only achieved such in France.
It looks a cracking race and whilst I’m not getting involved in it for a bet, I’ll be watching with keen interest.
No Return 40/1 | 1pt EW
13:05 Lingfield
13:05 LingfieldT: Charlie Johnston
J: Oliver Stammers
Result: Placed – 2/8 +12.2pts
Took keen hold, soon raced in second, outpaced over 1f out, no chance with winner but kept on towards finish, just held second (SP 66/1)
Mostawaa 28/1 | 1pt EW
19:00 Kempton
T: Heather Main
J: Jack Mitchell
Result: unplaced – 5/9 -2pt
Led early, headed and prominent after 1f, weakened from over 1f out (SP 28/1)
The first selection is No Return, who I’ve had to tickle at vastly over the odds. A recent addition to Charlie Johnston’s yard having moved over from Ireland (my favourite of angles), where this son of Kodiac ran healthily to a mark exceeding 80 numerous times, and won off of 79 with ease on his last start in Ireland.
He first ran in the U.K. under Charlie Johnston in November on the back of a lengthy lay off, got a bad start and then found trouble in-running, which saw him minded home under relatively little ask by Joe Fanning. He was dropped 2lbs by the handicapper for that, which on his evidence in Ireland, seems remarkably lenient.
Oliver Stammers rides Lingfield with great confidence, so off of a lenient looking mark in a small enough 0-85, he should have every chance of being involved should he not fluff the start. I can’t fathom the price about him.
Onto the next and one not seen on the All Weather since running a 4¾ lengths 4th of 13 in a Class 3 Handicap at Newcastle in summer 2023 from a mark of 85, the veteran Mostawaa returns the artificial surface at Kempton tonight looking very well treated.
He has been kept busy over that period, running in decent Class 4 and Class 3 handicaps on the flat, as well as a winter out in Meydan, but winning just one of those twenty-one runs (placed in a further six) has seen his rating tumble.
For that ease in the handicap, he drops into a Class 5 handicap for just the second time in the ten-year-olds career, the first coming in 2020 off of a mark of 77 where he was beaten a neck into 2nd over today’s C&D. He goes today off of 71, with the highest rated rival in the field being rated at just 73.
Wantage based trainer Heather Main is a shrewd enough operator for her small yard, who is well adept at placing her string, and I pay particular attention when Jack Mitchell rides for her. They operate at a 20% strike rate in all handicaps from 70 runners, which for a yard of this size is a serious achievement.
Other notes…
One goes today who we’ve been tracking, Take The Boat (20:00 Kempton, 7/2) for Georgina Nicholls , who I let run last time out up in trip and somewhat regretted it. I was hanging out for the filly to be dropped back to 7f, but over 9.5f she ran a cracker in 3rd at 22/1.
She goes over further still today and on that evidence she’ll likely be just fine with it, but on her last effort she is now just a 7/2 shot, and I can’t be following her in at that price on an unknown quantity.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
New to this? Read up on: Pace Bias · Place Terms · Race Class Levels
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