Daily Dial #127 – One Minimum Bet at Catterick

Yesterday’s only selection continued the theme of late, with a bemusing set of race tactics throughout leading to a race run vastly different to how we had predicted, and thus ending our chances. It looked entirely set up for Candy Warhol (who had led in four of previous five runs) and Never Dark (who had led on last six starts) to take each other on, and I’d expected the selection, White Umbrella, to be held up at the rear for a late run. As it transpired, White Umbrella pressed on to sit in behind the leaders, alongside a somewhat restrained Never Dark, leaving serial front-runner Candy Warhol to set nothing more than honest fractions up front, uncontested.

It’s a frustrating thing at the best of times when a race unfolds against how you’ve effectively bet against it, but that feeling is somewhat magnified when you’re in the seeming midst of a desperately poor run. I think it’s a key to keep a level head, and not let it creep doubt into your head, though. The race unfolded how it did for whatever reason, it didn’t suit the bet, who needs a very specific race, so move on.

Onto today… Oliver Cole’s handicap debutant Landslide could spring a surprise in the finale at Leicester. Not one I could bet on evidence to date, as he has looked a quirky sort, but Territories boys have a handsome strike rate of 31.5%, with 12 winners from 38 runners. Leicester is a very quirky track which many don’t handle, so it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see him suddenly find his feet.

Elsewhere, John Quinn and Jason Hart are somewhat prolific in these northern basement grade handicaps, and they pair up with one at Catterick with a Mehmas filly in the finale. Highfield Sunshine is 0/14, which tells its own story, and the fact she went from starting over 6f to being instantly upped to the mile suggested immediately that she wasn’t the speediest, and she has been highly tried over 7f since. She now drops back to 6f, which she has hinted at needing in her runs, and she has tumbled down to a lowly mark. I do think they could find easier races for this grade though, so if she shows any signs of improvement for the step back in trip, she may become a betting proposition in a similar race, providing she doesn’t find too much improvement here and oblige.

Over at Naas, I’ll be watching Ken Condon’s Oh Cecelia with interest in the Fillies’ And Mares’ Listed race (19:00, 40/1). If she reproduces anything like her head 2nd over C&D back in May she should be involved at the finish. She was beaten off level weights by vastly superior rated Havana Anna, who has since run a 2 lengths 4th of 22 in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. I do however think she prefers ease in the ground though, and she has put in two dismal runs latest, so for today she isn’t a betting proposition for me, despite being a very close one at huge odds.

I’m jumping back in on the Bayside Boy angle today, with the Ollie Pears filly BAYSIDE WAY in a moderate looking maiden at Catterick. Whilst the filly showed little on debut at Pontefract last month, weakening out of it over 6f to finish 9th of 11, that looked a fair race with some far nicer types than she faces here, and Ollie Pears is hardly renowned for having first time up winners (7/227, 3%). Their figure hardly jumps to an inspiring level 2TO (16/215, 7.1%), but they do improve and put into context for the gulf in class between the races, I’m willing to chance this one for a minimum bet.

It’s worth noting that of the nineteen Bayside Boy progeny, only two have failed to hit the frame inside their first two runs, and when they have been stepped up to 7f+, they read 5/10. The yard have also had two winners from their last four runners, having been largely in the cold since the turn of the year, suggesting a marked uptick in general form, albeit all four have been sent off clear favourites.

Highfield Sunshine (17/2, Catterick 16:42), Oh Cecelia (40/1, Naas 19:00) and Landslide (17/2, Leicester 20:50).

Good luck all.